Is big data over hyped?

We’ve definitely hit the point in the “big data” hype cycle where people are looking critically at the term and asking what all the fuss is about. Some pundits have even speculated about a big data bubble that’s sure to burst after everyone realizes the term has been over-used, and technologies like in-memory processing and high-performance computing (HPC) are not actually in high demand.

Folks, there’s no bubble here. You can’t put the data back in the bottle, so to speak. Big data – however you define it – isn’t going away and it isn’t getting smaller. It’s going to keep growing.

Maybe the term “big data” will change or devalue in significance, but you can’t poke holes in the concept itself, which is this: there are significant business benefits to be gained from storing and analyzing large volumes of data more efficiently.

That doesn’t mean big data is an issue for everyone or that high-performance computing is the answer for everyone.   But there is a business case to be made for the use of high performance analytics in many arenas, and those that see the whole idea as overhyped are looking at it too narrowly.

Here’s how I like to look at it: High-performance computing is, simply, an enabler. Most importantly, it enables you to get answers faster than before. But – and this is important – high performance computing is only as good as what you’re computing. If you’re getting summary statistics about your business portfolio, HPC will give you those reports faster. However, if your system is predicting risk exposure on thousands of assets, you’re going to get those predictions faster than before. Or, if you’re optimizing markdowns for millions of SKUs at hundreds of retail locations, you’ll be able to optimize those prices more quickly.

You see the difference?

A lot of big data proponents are promising things bigger, better and faster. But if the information you’re getting is backward looking, it’s still going to be looking at the past when you get it in a shorter timeframe. You’re still only understanding the past faster than before. No matter how fast you go with summary statistics, you’re never going to get to the future.

Only predictive analytics like forecasting and optimization will bring you out of the past and into the future. When you use high performance analytics to predict things like risk, customer satisfaction or marketing optimization, you’re getting your predictions sooner than before, and you can react more quickly. When you’re computing forward-looking results, the speed really can make a difference.

At its most basic level, high-performance computing reduces the time dimension. You have to decide what types of answers you want more quickly: standard reports or predictive analytics.

Once you know that, you can start asking questions and making decisions that could change your business. Or your world. I don’t think that’s hype. It’s as real as you can get, and the organizations that get it first are going to be the ones that make it further into the future.

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Davos 2012: How can we embrace opportunities in this risk-filled environment?

A question that is on the forefront of many discussions in Davos this year is how do we create inclusive growth amidst a volatile environment fraught with global risks? The problems are common and shared by governments and businesses around the world; how can they develop strategies to rebalance, identify long-term opportunities for sustainable growth, and provide an environment where innovations and new business models can be cultivated? How can they respond faster and in more economical ways to the needs of citizens and consumers?

The answers may be right at our fingertips.

While the economic complexity and challenges have been growing, another area has also been growing – and growing exponentially. I’m referring to the amount of data being generated every minute of every day. The ongoing digital revolution has resulted in the generation of data in vast quantities, most of which is captured by commercial or public organizations.

Every swipe of a credit card, every click of a mouse, every grocery item scanned, every comment posted online, all add to the massive data pile referred to as big data. Personal location data is exploding worldwide as well because of the availability of GPS systems embedded in mobile devices. If we realize that data is an asset, then we can also realize the importance of analytics to uncovering the answers that lie within this new asset class.

Today’s hyper-connected world continues to accelerate the speed of change and, combined with big data and the social media development, has the potential to enable a data-driven transformation of the public sector and, in essence, all other sectors as well.

Growing deficits combined with increased volatility and heightened fragility will force change. Converging transformational changes such as analytics will allow for accelerated pace of innovation and increasingly empower us to draw on the collective knowledge. In this way, hyper-connectivity is a catalyst for growth. Economic growth and social benefits can be driven through the use of technologies such as analytics that innovate off and leverage from the collective knowledge and big data.

The WEF report, “Personal Data” calls personal data the new oil – a valuable resource of the 21st century, a position that I concretely support. It is my belief that analyzing large, hyper-connected data sources will close the gap between how much knowledge is available and how much value can be gleaned from them.

The real value comes when analytics is applied to the new, unstructured data sources, combined with traditional data, to help make knowledge-based decisions that will benefit organizations, stakeholders and the broader global economy. We have the data at our fingertips; it’s time we recognize the value that lies therein to improve and sustain our quality of life.

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SAS = analytics. Analytics = hot.

The analytics market is hot. We’ve been saying that for a while now, and so have many industry experts. If you didn’t believe it before now, check out our newly released 2011 financial results and see if that doesn’t convince you. SAS earned US$2.725 billion in revenues last year, a 12 percent increase over 2010.

If you really want a picture of how hot the analytics market is, there’s no better indicator than SAS sales. After all, SAS has 35 percent market share for analytics, and the other nine analytics vendors behind us don’t own 35 percent of the market combined. In other words, our competitors are doing some work with analytics, but their revenues come from other areas as well.

Need another indicator? Our head count for 2011 was up 9.2 percent globally. What does that mean? It tells me, again, that the value proposition of analytics is hot. We initially had plans to grow head count by 4 percent last year. We never thought we’d grow by more than 9 percent, but demand for analytic solutions has been high, and we had to hire to keep up with the demand.

You know, I really like this time of year. January is underway and New Year’s resolutions are still hanging on. Our sales staff is in town to kick off another great year, our revenues are up again – and one of our favorite workplace awards has been announced.

This year, we ranked #3 in FORTUNE’s Best Companies to Work For list. We’ve been on the list every year since its inception and this is the ninth time we've been in the top ten.

The bottom line this year - and every year - is that SAS is appealing to customers and employees not only for its software and solutions but also for the genuine relationships we foster. Long-term business deals are based on the relationships that our employees build with customers, and that’s why the FORTUNE award is so important.

Technology alone cannot sustain you as a business. If we want to maintain our 36-year streak of growing revenues, we know the relationships we build with employees and customers are just as important as our solutions. As more and more technologies become commodities, those relationships will become even more important.

Right now, SAS has both: the best people and the best analytics. It’s a great place to be. So, watch out 2012. Things are only going to get hotter!

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Retail: the “sophisticated numbers game”

Are you a last-minute holiday shopper? Or the type that has everything bought, wrapped and tagged before Thanksgiving? It's safe to say, I do all of my shopping the week before Christmas.

Whether you’re shopping late or shopping early, you’re probably looking for the best deals - and so are retailers. They want to make sure you’re happy with the price you pay while they still make a profit. What’s the secret to making sure customers get a deal and retailers don’t mark down too much? Analytics, of course.

This marketplace podcast, “The secret life of discounts,” from American Public Media does a great job explaining how customer data, seasonality and regional demographics can all be used to help optimize markdowns, promotions, product placements and more.

Enjoy the insights, the shopping and the holidays. See you in 2012.

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Q4 2011 Intelligence Quarterly: Battleground for the future

In the latest edition of Intelligence Quarterly, we explore big data, the transformational influence of analytics – and the implications of both in today’s hyperconnected world.

While we live and work in an environment of free-flowing information, we are also exposed to new dangers. Globalization has removed geographical boundaries, and the Internet and mobility have fostered an always-on culture. But with that we have seen a marked rise in cybercrime and cyberwarfare.

The good news: Technology has helped heighten ongoing efforts around cybersecurity. The bad news: Rather than share and analyze available data, organizations often lock down information to prevent potential attacks. However, there is an alternative.

Within the covers of this issue, we share many examples of how organizations around the world use data sharing and analytics to reap exponential business benefits while at the same time gaining greater protection against criminal behavior.

From fusion centers to cyber-analytics to intelligence-led policing, you'll discover the many weapons at organizations' disposal to enhance security and combat all sorts of crime whilst fully embracing the potential of the new digital economy.

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Inspired by Facebook: Five ways to create a culture of innovation

Visitors to the SAS campus in Cary, NC often walk away feeling inspired by our corporate culture and our creative surroundings. I felt the same sense of inspiration after a recent visit to Facebook’s headquarters in Palo Alto.

There’s a real energy there that comes partly from the group effort to make something new that you know people will use. It’s not the same as being on site – but this video about one of Facebook’s all-night hackathons does give you an idea of the excitement that is an everyday part of the culture there.

 

How does Facebook create a culture of innovation? And how does SAS maintain an award winning culture of innovation after 35 years? Whether you’re an SMB, a young startup or a traditional enterprise company, how can you do the same? Constantly challenge the status quo. Here’s five ways to do just that:

  1. Challenge the processes in your organization. If your first reaction is to say, “A hackathon wouldn’t work here,” why is that? And what would it take to make it work? Challenge those assumptions and those processes that make the possible seem impossible.
  2. Find a tool to challenge the norm. If it’s not a hackathon, what is it? What type of event or disruption could you use to inject innovation into your culture? Maybe it’s a Do Your Own Thing Day instead of an all-night event. The most important thing is to follow through and develop some of the ideas you incubate during that day.
  3. Bring in outside ideas. It doesn’t have to be an overpriced consultant. Just invite people outside of your regular team to a planning session or a meeting to get ideas. You might be surprised what you can come up with together.
  4. Get out of your routine. If you spend every day in the office, get up and move around. Work outside for an hour or work in a crowded place, and see what inspires you there.
  5. Stop looking for consensus on every idea. Sometimes, you can develop an idea while you’re seeking consensus. Other times, take the initiative to build or create something without consensus. If you know it’s a good idea and you can make it happen, what’s stopping you?

What inspires you about the Facebook culture or the Facebook video above? What ideas do you have for fostering a culture of creativity? And what is your "one thing" that you have one chance to create, fix or develop? How can you get it done?

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What do retail banking customers want?

What do retail banking customers want? SAS, along with partner Cognizant, recently sponsored two consumer focus groups to answer that question. Conducted by The Bank Administration Institute (BAI), the research revealed some interesting findings, including:

  • Retail banking customers expect clarity and fairness. They want transparency into the fees they pay and especially want to know in advance when fee structures are changing.
  • Customers want easy access to their account information and their funds. This includes brick and mortar locations, ATMs, online and mobile banking channels, but essentially, there’s an expectation for multiple, flexible banking options with innovative features.
  • Loyalty should be rewarded, according to consumers in these focus groups. Banks are being evaluated by incentives and customer service. In fact, a quality customer experience is expected regardless of channel, whether it is in person or not.

At the BAI Retail Delivery conference in Chicago, I participated in a panel that presented these findings and discussed how banks are using segmented approaches to meet customer expectations onmultiple channels. My co-panelists were Debbie Bianucci, President and CEO of BAIManuel Chinea, CMO and SVP of US Retail Banking Operations for Banco Popular;  and Vin Malhotra, Client Partner & Retail Banking Lead of Cognizant Business Consulting.

We talked in detail about the importance of segmenting for more than just your standard demographics, and I used myself as an example that not every 40- to 55-year old male has the same banking preferences. Right now, for instance, I’m thinking about shutting down one of my personal banking accounts because the bank’s iPhone app isn’t any good. So for me, the personal experience is less important than being able to get complete access to account information via a useful mobile interface. That’s probably not the case for every person in my demographic range.

Surprisingly, social media did not come up as a channel within this discussion, but there were at least a handful of other panels at BAI that addressed meeting customer needs via social channels. Instead, the audience of about 400 for this panel asked about the challenges that regulations pose in implementing a personal banking experience across multiple channels.

Attendees also definitely wanted to discuss new segmentation strategies that look beyond the stage of life, income and family status of specific customer groups. They wondered, for example, if segmentation at the individual transaction level is possible.  In fact, it is – and it’s a good example of the type of What if? question mentioned in my last post.

Today, technology is no longer the barrier to analyzing big data sources. If you can think of it and can build a marketing process around it, high performance computing can analyze and segment your data down to the individual transaction level.

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Stop asking, Why? And start asking, What if?

A few years ago, we had this big debate between the terms business intelligence and business analytics – and which one was more accurate or reflective of the products in our industry. I don’t hear those arguments anymore. Some still say business intelligence and business analytics are one and the same. It doesn’t matter what you call it. What does matter is that organizations are really starting to differentiate themselves through the application of analytics to large business problems.

Now that we have moved past this educational phase to a period of action, we’re talking to customers more frequently about how to implement analytics in their industries and their organizations, and where the opportunities lie for them to differentiate with analytics as well. One of the technologies we’ve been demonstrating that has caught the attention of customers and the media alike is SAS High-Performance Computing.

I’ve been present a few times recently when our lead developer has been on stage to run through a large marketing optimization problem with real data from the telecom industry. The problem itself looks at millions of customers, hundreds of possible marketing offers, multiple delivery options and various other detailed business constraints. Each time, we are able to show how something this complex, which used to take 12 hours to calculate, can now be completed in two to three minutes. And the best part is that you don’t need extensive server farms and mainframes to do it. Today’s advanced analytics and fast processing speeds make it possible to run high performance computing on an appliance that’s a fraction of the cost of yesterday’s server farms.

When we demo’d this same high performance analytics scenario to a large group recently, I witnessed an audience member approach the developer afterwards and say, “That could be my data. We have very similar optimization problems we are tackling, and they take 16 hours to compute, not 12!”

After another demonstration at the Disney Analytics Summit, I could practically see the light bulbs appearing over audience members’ heads. These are people who know how to look for opportunities. They aren’t asking, “Well, why do we even need to have that data any sooner?” Instead, they’re asking, “If we had those results sooner, how could we improve our business?”

Participants at the SAS Championship Golf Tournament were asking themselves the same questions this week when SAS CEO Jim Goodnight, Thought Leader Tom Davenport and Bloomberg Senior Marketer Bill Colihan discussed the potential of high performance computing there. Clearly, this technology provides an opportunity to take another look at your business processes to see what you can modify or improve if you’re informed more quickly.

Anybody who says, “But I don’t need the data that quickly,” needs to check themselves right now, step back and ask, “What if I did get it that quickly? What could I do differently? What could I do better?“ The opportunity is right there in front of you if you take it. How can you change the way you operate your business? What processes can you improve if you’re getting answers 95 percent faster than before?

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Asia: A safe haven amidst global uncertainty

Much has changed since last year, when the Premier Business Leadership Series was held in Hong Kong in August 2010. Back then the economy seemed like it was on a path towards recovery from the economic crisis of 2009. Growth in Asia was prominent across the region and the effects of the economic downturn at the time were hardly making an impact. Fast forward to present day, and we find ourselves in a much more precarious situation, potentially headed for a double-dip recession.

In fact, the two greatest challenges, as determined by an audience of 800 leading economists, government officials, policy makers and business leaders from across Asia Pacific who were polled during our Global Economic and Business Outlook panel discussion that kicked off PBLS 2011 last month in Singapore, are the Eurozone debt crisis and the US political gridlock. As these uncertainties plague the future outlook of the world economy, we discussed what sort of impact this would have on economic growth in Asia and whether the region would be as impervious to these threats, this time around.

Vikram Nehru, former Chief Economist for East Asia and the Pacific of the World Bank, stated that Asia would certainly be impacted and that he expected Asia would decline by about a half percentage point or so. Yet he remained confident that overall development in the emerging markets of Asia would be spurned by rapidly rising incomes, the rise of Southeast Asian trade, and the potential of the relatively underdeveloped services sector, all of which would fuel the engine for continued growth.

Bernard Yeung, Dean at NUS Business School, viewed the slowing growth in the US and the Eurozone as an opportunity for Asia, citing that investment in productivity instead of relying on government stimulation would be essential. Johanna Chua, Managing Director and Chief Asia Pacific Economist and Head of Asia Pacific Economic and Market Analysis, Citigroup, concurred that the S&P downgrade has handcuffed fiscal policy in the US and that this will move buyers and investors to seek “safe haven” assets. According to Chua, in past sell-offs, buyers moved to investing in gold and other precious metals to mitigate risk but now they are moving to emerging market bonds. “This is an opportunity for parts of Asia to become a safe haven,” she said. “This could provide an opportunity for more infrastructure investment and a rebalancing of the economy. It could be an opportunity to take advantage of the low-yield environment to invest in higher-return investments.”

Brett King, author of BANK 2.0, cited the growth and advancement of technology and the speed at which information spreads has accelerated the exposure of risk; yet there remains a solid opportunity in the offering of new technology platforms. Value-creation in the economy is going to shift, and the consumer is going to lead this. This is where analytics comes into play. The future of success for an organization will rely on its ability to manage risk and have a strong understanding of consumer and public sentiment to anticipate behaviors and trends. And the only way businesses, governments and economies will be able to attain this will be through harnessing data and applying analytics to make better decisions and create value in an increasingly complex and changing environment.

I think it was Bernard who put it best in saying that, “There are a lot of opportunities and a lot of land mines with future changes. It must be a back to basics in Asia in that you need to know what you are getting into – not just today but in the future.” It is apparent that the rest of the world will be keeping a closer watch on how the markets in the East will respond as we head into the end of what has been a very momentous year.

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Do or die: Analytics key to survival

What difference can one letter make? A lot, if you consider the recent downgrade of the US credit rating. And even more when it’s combined with the euro’s inability to use currency adjustments to balance fiscal conditions in Europe. We started this year worrying about the shape of the economic recovery – whether it would be a V-curve, U-curve, L-curve or another shape entirely. Now we are faced with the potential of the political risk environment overtaking financials risk as one of the top risks for 2011.

In a recent discussion with a few world-leading economists and academics, we deliberated policy uncertainties, political gridlock and the potential paradigm shift. We asked one another, what is a safe asset? How do we re-price sovereign risk? Should we price spreads the same way in Asia as in Europe and the US? These and other questions that arose reflect the pervasive uncertainty about the future. Are we faced with a period of subdued growth, or will we be pushed into a double-dip recession?

From my vantage point, I see that with uncertainty rises opportunity. Will the search for safe haven turn its focus to Asia? Will it help the market shift focus from asset price risks and QE3s to the consumer side? And with the focus on sustainable consumer spending – as opposed to even greater government spending – will it start to address structural issues, such as building trust, certainty and transparency? In any case, I believe many of the solutions will be knowledge-led, and that analytics will play a vital role in all three areas – that of pricing increasingly complex risk, boosting transparency and governance, and deepening consumer knowledge (through the use of social media, for example).

Analytics alone will not slow the growing volatility, but more and more it is becoming one of the key tools in our arsenal to handle heightened complexity, increase knowledge and build trust through transparency. And as governments exhaust the use of their traditional tools, this may very well be the time to embrace the sunrise of knowledge-led technology – analytics in particular. If the ever-growing interest in analytics indicates a real trend, its status is bound to change from one of merely providing competitive advantage to representing survival.

I’ve invited four experts to share their perspectives on the global economic and business outlook during an upcoming event in Singapore, The Premier Business Leadership Series.

  • Bernard Yeung, Dean, NUS Business School
  • Johanna Chua, Managing Director, Chief Asia Pacific Economist and Head of Asia Pacific Economic and Market Analysis, Citigroup
  • Vikram Nehru, former Chief Economist for East Asia and the Pacific of the World Bank
  • Brett King, author of BANK 2.0

It’s a conversation I really look forward to sharing with you. I encourage you to join us on August 23.

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