Tag: seasonal random walk

Mike Gilliland 0
Forecast Value Added Q&A (Part 4)

Q: ­What is a legitimate goal to expect from your FVA...5%, 10%? Q: ­How do we set Target FVA which Forecasters can drive towards?­ The appropriate goal is to do no worse than a naive model, that is FVA ≥ 0. Sometimes, especially over short periods of time, you may