Tag: iowa electronic markets

Mike Gilliland 0
Simple methods and ensemble forecasting of elections

Two enduring principles of forecasting are that simple methods can work as well as fancy methods, and that combining (averaging)  forecasts, also known as "ensemble forecasting," will usually result in more accurate predictions than the individual methods being averaged. We saw a good demonstration of these principles in Tuesday's election

Mike Gilliland 0
The predictive power of nonsense

The 2012 US Presidential race comes to a close today (thankfully), and there is no shortage of wacky indicators predicting the winner: Iowa Electronic Markets FiveThirtyEight PollyVote University of Colorado In primitive times a diviner could foretell the future by poisoning a chicken -- whether it lived or died provided