Tag: ensemble forecasting

Mike Gilliland 0
The miracle of combining forecasts

Life gifts us very few miracles. So when a miracle happens, we must be prepared to embrace it, and appreciate its worth. In 1947, in New York City, there was the Miracle on 34th Street. In 1980, at the Winter Olympics, there was the miracle on ice. In 1992, at the Academy Awards, there was

Mike Gilliland 0
WRAL weather forecaster more than a pretty face

I've always thought of TV weather forecasters as just talking heads. Sure they look pretty, waving hands in front of fancy green-screen graphics, reading poetically off the teleprompters, and standing fearlessly in the midst of the worst storm conditions. But could we expect man candy as tart as Al Roker and Willard

Mike Gilliland 0
Lessons from forecasting the stock market

There is a well recognized phenomenon that combining forecasts, derived from different methods using different sources of information, can improve forecast accuracy. This approach, sometimes called "ensemble forecasting," is available in SAS Forecast Server. Per Scott Armstrong's review of 57 studies on combining forecasts, "the combined forecast can be better