Could analytics predict the next president?

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The political festivities are really getting started with both Republicans and Democrats holding their national conventions back-to-back.dcJohn// attribution creative commons

We’re not going to get into a debate over who should occupy the White House come January 2013, but we are curious to find out if analytics could play a part in the process.

So we asked the speakers and sponsors of Analytics 2012 to share their insight on the subject. Here’s what they had to say :

“I have read that the Democrats are relying heavily on data mining in their campaign, concentrating on fund-raising applications.” –Ross Bettinger, Modern Analytics

“Most likely it’s kept protected from the public view, but the role of analytics is going to grow within politics - it’s growing in every industry and every company.  If you don’t think you’re in the information processing business, you will soon be out of business. For the campaign, I am sure they have simulation and key driver models, and are utilizing a gaming metaphor for polling, optimizing their direct and media marketing, determining how to optimize their spend to win the electoral college. All are classic applications of analytics. If they aren’t using these techniques, they’re missing a huge opportunity to affect the outcome of the election!” –Zubin Dowlaty, Mu Sigma

“Like the rest of the world, analytics will play a greater role in 2012 than previous elections and will play an even bigger role in 2016.  The campaigns are not going to let us know their analytical secret sauce, but I suspect both parties are using more sophisticated voter segmentations to determine campaign strategy.” –Dudley Gwaltney, SunTrust Bank

“We are going to have more insights into voter trends and feelings than we have ever had in history. So we are going to be inundating not only in voter turnout, but in segmentation into minority groups, socioeconomic groups, political parties and more. We will have much more information, but I don’t believe that will have an effect on the outcome.” –Gene Pease, Capital Analytics Inc.

“To be honest, I think we already over analyze the presidential campaign to the point of nausea. Every day we are bombarded with factoids about how this or that influences the election. Of course, the political parties will try to use every analytical trick they can think of to get an upper hand.” –Ed Swing, Vision Systems & Technology Inc.

“Analytics will certainly play a big role in the 2012 US Presidential campaign.  With what looks like a close race, the very specific ‘undecided’ populations will be very important to identify and campaign towards. Whether the analytics will be used correctly or portrayed honestly by the media is another story.  I guess we’ll find out in November!” –Steve VanWieren, Ultimate Software

Putting politics aside, there are many other topics to be debated at Analytics 2012.  This year’s conference takes place October 8-9 at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. We hope to see you there.

For more information, check out the website.

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Maggie Miller

Education and Training

+ Maggie Miller was formerly a communications specialist at SAS. You'll likely find her writing blogs, shooting videos and sharing it all on social media. She has nearly ten years of journalism experience that she brings to her writing to help you learn and grow with SAS. Follow on Twitter @maggiemiller0

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