Very cool analysis, especially the ease with which you were able to get the data into SAS. I don't know much about the ETS procedures, but one of my favorite smoothers is the LOESS procedure. There is also a LOESS statement in PROC SGPLOT. The loess proc/statement will compute the "best" smoother according to some criterion, so try it out and see what that looks like. If the smoother is too wiggly, try using a SMOOTH= value that is larger than auto-selected value. I'm going to guess that SMOOTH=0.16 or 0.25 will be large enough to see yearly trends without being too wiggly. The smoothers in my "most likely birthday" posts are loess smoothers.