Analytics is a field of dreams

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Baseball is ninety percent mental and the other half is physical. -Yogi Berra

As Moneyball hits theaters on September 23, I know awareness and appreciation for analytics will spike. The thought of the little guy being able to outmaneuver their stronger, better equipped opponent resonates with many people and relates in all areas of business.

Analytics is making this a reality for organizations worldwide today.

In the film, based on the book by Michael Lewis titled Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, two key assumptions help to explain how the Oakland A’s were able to rattle the baseball world:

  1. Players are overvalued (or undervalued).
  2. Money (and resources) are left in the dugout.

Assumption #1 – Players are overvalued (or undervalued)
Traditional baseball knowledge suggests that stats such as stolen bases, runs batted in, and batting average are the best measures for appraising players before they are traded or drafted. Facing budget constraints, Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s challenged this assumption out of necessity. The problem wasn’t that players were being undervalued or overvalued, but rather, the metrics being used for this valuation were off target. A quote from Moneyball clarifies this point:

“Your goal shouldn’t be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins. In order to buy wins you need to buy runs.”

The A’s opponents were focusing on metrics that didn’t translate to wins. That presented an excellent opportunity. The A’s swung at the pitch, applying analytics to capitalize on their competitors’ weaknesses, and knocked it out of the park.

Take-Away: If you don’t focus on hitting the ball, you’ll miss your opportunity to win the game.

By maintaining a holistic view of your business and ensuring that your actions (and your analytics!) are aligned with your core business objectives, you’ll be well positioned to win the game.

Assumption #2 – Money (and resources) are left in the dugout

In 2002, the A’s success transformed the way players were evaluated. Ten years down the first base line, the business landscape has also dramatically changed.

Perhaps the biggest curveball facing business is the social media phenomenon. Social networking has exploded and it is now both a challenge and an opportunity for those who step up to the plate and capitalize on this rich intelligence source. In fact, at the time of the Oakland A’s groundbreaking discovery, social media did not even exist.

And, three very influential companies were busy warming up in the bullpen:

  • Facebook was founded in 2004
  • YouTube was founded in 2005
  • Twitter was founded in 2006

Social media has opened up a new channel for exposing “inefficiencies” – in products, services, and the way we interact with customers. So, how are you using Social Media to exploit these inefficiencies? And, are you leveraging the best players and equipment for the tasks at hand?

Take-Away: Optimize your team by leveraging players (resources) where they are the strongest, and continually
scout for new talent.

While the Internet and its successors hold extreme value, they are also in constant flux. Like Sabermetrics for baseball, SAS Analytics can deliver the homeruns business leaders are demanding. More specifically, text analytics is bringing organizations game-changing results that are attracting admirers worldwide. Social media is where public opinion, insight, and competitive advantages are exposed and then leveraged for success. As the film Moneyball makes so very clear, to stay ahead you must compete strategically, keep your eye on the ball and eliminate hindering inefficiencies. Those who have the tools, knowledge and drive to take advantage of the opportunities can be the ones who not only win the game… but also, truly dominate the major leagues.

“What are you really worth?” – Moneyball

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About Author

Dan Zaratsian

Sr. Solutions Architect

Dan Zaratsian is a Sr. Solutions Architect with SAS' Global Analytics Practice, specializing in real-time event stream processing, text analytics, and machine learning. He works with a variety of technologies, both open-source and enterprise software, in order to design, program, and implement analytical solutions for clients. Dan holds a M.S. in Analytics from North Carolina State's Institute for Advanced Analytics and a Bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Akron.

1 Comment

  1. Berra’s quote is representative of a well-known phenomenon in cognitive psychology: Baseball is ninety percent mental and the other half is physical. -Yogi Berra

    Most of us use decision-making heuristics where the just-noticeable-difference between 90% and 50% would be at the top end of the range – we are much, much worse … unfortunately.

    The great thing about Dan’s article is that he doesn’t fall into the trap of putting numbers on things -- for all the emphasis on statistics in movies like Moneyball most decisions are still made in the gut – where there are more analog circuits than digital ones 

    In short, we still have a lot of educating to do. There is an interesting article on Moneyball –see link to “Moneyball Myth” – that points out the many “human factors” that were involved in the A’s success

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903703604576584650624090400.html?KEYWORDS=moneyball

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