Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.
Supply Chain Lead Times Most companies with a supply chain have to deal with supply lead times. When I worked in the processed meats industry many years ago, production plans were locked three weeks in advance.That's how long it took to secure raw materials and schedule the production lines. Many
We open this 48th issue of Foresight with an announcement of the goals and participation rules for the upcoming forecasting-methods competition, the M4. The M in all the competitions— the original, the M2, the M3, and now the M4—acknowledges their primary author, Spyros Makridakis. The competitions are extremely well-known events
Editor-in-Chief Len Tashman's Preview of the Fall 2017 Issue of Foresight Artificial intelligence (AI) is the name commonly given to the ability of machines to mimic the human aptitude to reason, solve problems, and learn from experience. Research in this field over the past few decades has spanned many disciplines,
In this guest blogger post, Chris Gray of Gray Research weighs in on the discussion of forecasting vs. budgeting. Chris Gray on Forecasting vs. Budgeting Generally I agree with Steve Morlidge’s points about the differences between forecasts (or sales plans) and budgets, and the fact that they are unlikely to
Chris Gray of Gray Research is a longtime contributor to the practice of Sales and Operations Planning. He is author of several books on S&OP, software selection, and other supply chain related areas, including Sales and Operations Planning Standard System (2007). In 2006 he co-authored Sales & Operations Planning –
Yesterday I recommended Steve Morlidge’s The Little Book of Beyond Budgeting, for helping to illuminate the troubling usage of business forecasts in the traditional management / budgeting process. Steve reached out to me overnight with some additional points that he shares in this guest blogger post. Steve Morlidge on Forecasts
Is There Something Beyond Budgeting? Forecasting is an integral part of the business planning and budgeting process. Presumably the forecast (which should be an "unbiased best guess" at what is really going to happen in the future) can provide a reasonable foundation upon which the annual budget and operating plans
IIF Tao Hong Award Dr. Tao Hong is a friend, former SAS colleague, former SAS basketball league opponent, a major contributor to SAS Energy Forecasting software, and now Associate Professor at UNC Charlotte. When he isn't raining three-pointers on me on the basketball court, Tao is Director of the Big
Editor-in-Chief Len Tashman's Preview The forecasting field is surely cross-disciplinary, as exemplified by the diverse membership of the International Institute of Forecasters (the publisher of this journal), but it is also multidimensional, as can be clearly seen in this Summer 2017 issue. The articles you’ll read here encompass sales and
For the fifteenth year, the International Institute of Forecasters, in collaboration with SAS®, is proud to announce research grants for how to improve forecasting methods and business forecasting practice. The award for the 2017-2018 year will be two $5,000 grants, in Business Applications and Methodology. Criteria for the award of
