In reply to Andrew Gibson.

Hi Andrew, thanks for the comment. While the importance of relative performance (e.g. comparing a medicine against a placebo) has been recognized since the dawn of science, it has been a struggle getting it recognized in business forecasting. This is particularly unfortunate since a naive model is perfectly suited to fill the role of the placebo for making performance comparisons.

As for reasons, is basic scientific method not being taught in business schools? That's all that FVA is -- the application of basic scientific method -- to determine whether our forecasting efforts are having an effect.

At least the number of forecasting practitioners using this approach appears to be increasing. In recent years we've seen many companies talk about this subject publicly (including Newell Rubbermaid, Nestle, Cisco, Intel, RadioShack, AstraZeneca, Yokohama Tire (Canada), Amway, ...)