Michael Gilliland is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (the book), editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions, and Associate Editor of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. He is a longtime business forecasting practitioner, and currently Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting software. Mike serves on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and received the 2017 Lifetime Achievement award from the Institute of Business Forecasting. He initiated The Business Forecasting Deal (the blog) to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.
Following is editor-in-chief Len Tashman's preview of the Winter 2020 issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Preview of Foresight (Winter 2020) This Winter 2020 issue of Foresight—number 56 since the journal began in 2005—formally introduces a new section: Integrated Business Planning (IBP), the meaning of which is evolving
Foresight Editor-in-Chief Len Tashman's Preview of the Fall 2019 Issue This 55th issue of Foresight opens with an article from Phillip Yelland, Zeynep Erkin Baz, and David Serafini of the Data Science/AI team at Target: Forecasting at Scale: The Architecture of a Modern Retail Forecasting System. The challenge of scale
The SAS Forecasting R&D team has an open position for a Forecasting and Machine Learning Specialist (apply here). What you’ll do As a Forecasting and Machine Learning Specialist on the SAS Forecasting R&D team, you will help create innovative software to apply cutting-edge statistical methods to automated enterprise-scale business forecasting processes. You will:
Artificial Intelligence for Forecasting Can artificial intelligence augment and amplify our forecasting efforts? Will AI impact our forecasting roles and processes? Does AI deliver the automation and forecast accuracy we've been pursuing? These are the sorts of questions to be addressed by a stellar panel of world-class experts at the
The International Institute of Forecasters and SAS® announce two $10,000 grants to support research on forecasting. Per the announcement: Forecasting research has seen major changes in the theoretical ideas underpinning forecasting effectiveness over the last 30 years. However, there has been less impact on forecasting practice. We aim to put
Back in 2013 the BFD asked Is one number forecasting a new worst practice?, concluding yes. Certainly, it is important for an organization to be aligned, with different functions like sales, supply chain, and finance not going off independently in their own directions, doing whatever they want. But trying to
Editor-in-Chief Len Tashman's Preview of the Summer 2019 Issue of Foresight This 54th edition of Foresight features an important new take on the role of judgment in the forecasting process. Normally, we see judgment applied to adjust a statistical forecast or supply a forecast directly. But here Fotios Petropoulos proposes
Special Feature Section Our special feature section in this 53rd issue of Foresight poses the question, Are You a Victim of Your Models? Here Tom Willemain, a longtime contributor to the journal, ponders why modeling and optimization algorithms haven’t displaced “gut instinct” in supply-chain forecasting as much as one would
The value of any data lies, of course, in its use to make better decisions that lead to more favorable results – like increased revenue and profit, improved customer satisfaction, and increased safety. The Internet of Things is giving us a lot more data. The challenge is how to manage
This issue's preview is provided by Ralph Culver, Foresight's manuscript editor. Preview of Winter 2019 issue of Foresight The Winter 2019 issue of Foresight—number 52—kicks off with Simon Clarke’s enthusiastic review of The Little Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting by Dr. Steve Morlidge. Every year brings us new, inexperienced business-operations
Applying machine learning approaches to forecasting is an area of great research interest. Progress is being made on multiple fronts, for example: In the M4 Forecasting Competition, completed earlier this year, the top two performers utilized machine learning with traditional time series forecasting methods. At the link you'll find full
This Fall 2018 issue of Foresight, our 51st, opens with Fotios Petropoulos’s review of Paul Goodwin’s latest book, How to Profit from Your Software: A Best-Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters. Fotios notes that the author doesn’t single out any one software system, but keeps the discussion general and so applicable to many products.
Continuation of Q&A from the September 19, 2018 ASA web lecture "Why Are Forecasts So Wrong? What Management Must Know About Forecasting." Why Are Forecasts So Wrong? Q&A (Part 2) Q: Should we make a distinction between business as usual forecasts and major change forecasts and do FVA for these
Last week I had the pleasure of delivering a one hour web lecture for the American Statistical Association on "Why Are Forecasts So Wrong? What Management Must Know About Forecasting." I find it helpful (both for myself and the audience) to follow up with written responses to all questions submitted
Forenote: We Are The Champions In a season marred by more cheating and dirty play than a church league, I had the pleasure of teaming with this motley group below to win the 2018 SAS Basketball Championship. Easy everyone...don't think I announce this to be glorified and put on a
Note: The following concludes an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. Good forecasts don’t always ‘look right’ Many forecasters believe that they can tell how good a forecast is by ‘eyeballing’ it. Good forecasts just ‘look right’ or so they would
Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. The measurement challenge So here is the forecasters dilemma: There will always have forecast error. The challenge is to work out the cause of the error and to take the appropriate
We'll take a short break from the Steve Morlidge book serialization, to announce that SAS Research & Development has again provided $10,000 in funding for the SAS/IIF grant program. Both academics and industry practitioners are encouraged to apply and conduct original research for improving the practice of forecasting. SAS/IIF Grants
Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. The forecasting challenge It is not possible to forecast any future outcomes precisely. Only the signal is potentially forecastable – noise is unforecastable in principle. And all forecasts assume that the
Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. Data Series are different – and it matters to forecasters The nature of demand that is to be forecast, as represented by patterns in the historic data series, that is to
Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. Forecasting is not compulsory Operational forecasting is important but it is not mandatory. operational forecasts are used to make sure that a business can respond effectively to customer demand for its
Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. The quality of forecasts matters…a lot It is difficult to precisely estimate the business impact of forecast quality partly because it impacts so many variables in ways that are not easy
Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. Different kinds of forecasts This book is focused on operational forecasting – the stuff you do to determine what you need to buy, produce, hold in stock or otherwise give your customers
Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. What IS a forecast? First of all, we need to be absolutely clear what a forecast is – and what it isn’t. A forecast is a best estimate of future
The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting Steve Morlidge's latest work, The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting, is a unique contribution to the field. It is a guide for short term operational forecasting, delivered in a pocket-sized format, through 79 brief (two page) illustrated lessons. As I stated in my
The BFD on RFPs Software selection teams are prone to issuing lengthy requests for information (RFIs) or requests for proposals (RFPs), with page after page of check boxes for so-called requirements. Vendors stay in contention by dutifully checking off each box as either “available now,” “available in next release,” or
When you realize your organization has a forecasting problem, what do you do to solve it? In particular, if you realize you need new forecasting software, how do you begin to find it? All too often, the first step in a software selection process is the Request for Proposal (RFP)
You can still register for the 38th annual International Symposium on Forecasting, being held June 17-20 in Boulder, Colorado, at the foothills of the Rockies. Beyond the daily keynotes and over 150 presentations of new research, a separate Practitioner Track features talks on the application of forecasting research to organizational
Editor-in-Chief Len Tashman's Preview of Foresight The Spring 2018 issue of Foresight—the 49th since our beginning in 2005—opens with a feature section on Supply Chain forecasting. More specifically, it addresses the very critical matter of how a company should determine its service-level targets, or the probability that no shortages occur between the time
SAS Global Forum (Denver, April 8-11) Join over 5000 attendees at the biggest SAS event of the year, and see how SAS is embedding more artificial intelligence and automation into the SAS Platform. See the SAS Forecasting and Econometrics Community for the huge list of forecasting, econometrics, and time series
