Author

Mike Gilliland
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Product Marketing Manager

Michael Gilliland is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (the book), and editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions. He is a longtime business forecasting practitioner, and currently Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting software. Mike serves on the Board of Directors for the International Institute of Forecasters, and received the 2017 Lifetime Achievement in Business Forecast award from the Institute of Business Forecasting. He initiated The Business Forecasting Deal (the blog) to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.

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Changing the paradigm for business forecasting (Part 11 of 12)

Aphorism 3: Organizational Policies and Politics Can Have a Significant Impact on Forecasting Effectiveness We just saw how demand volatility reduces forecastability. Yet our sales, marketing, and financial incentives are usually designed to add volatility. We reward sales spikes and record weeks, rather than smooth, stable, predictable growth. The forecast

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Changing the paradigm for business forecasting (Part 8 of 12)

Typical Business Forecasting Process Let’s look at a typical business forecasting process. Historical data is fed into forecasting software which generates the "statistical" forecast. An analyst can review and override the forecast, which then goes into a more elaborate collaborative or consensus process for further adjustment. Many organizations also have

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Rob Hyndman on measuring forecast accuracy

The new book Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions contains a large section of recent articles on forecasting performance evaluation and reporting. Among the contributing authors is Rob Hyndman, Professor of Statistics at Monash University in Australia. To anyone needing an introduction, Hyndman's credentials include: Editor-in-chief of International Journal of

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