Entries tagged as Thomas Davenport
Friday, October 30. 2009
Yesterday at The Premier Business Leadership Series, I had the tremendous pleasure of attending the panel debate Balancing Intuition and Analytics in Decision Making. The panelists were: Malcolm Gladwell - Best-selling author of Outliers: The Story of Success, Blink and The Tipping Point; Tom Davenport - Best-selling author of Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning and President's Distinguished Professor at Babson College; and Thornton May - Futurist, Executive Director and Dean of the IT Leadership Academy . The panel continued a discussion that Malcolm had introduced in his keynote address earlier about Judgment - the ability to make decisions in seconds based on the acquired experience of years of practical application (or the 10,000 hour rule - the amount of time it takes to be truly great at something). As an aside, I really wonder about this - why are there so many young successful people if you need a minimum of 10 years of experience; are they drawing on something more than just experience or raw talent? At first glance, you would expect the panel to split pretty firmly into two camps: The "experience is king" camp led by Malcolm and the "you can't get enough data" camp led by Tom and Thornton. But what struck me as interesting was actually how close the two camps were: Malcolm admitted that experience needs feedback to be valuable (feedback from objective business analytics for example) and Tom and Thornton acknowledged that Analytics needs interpretation and judgment to put information into context and to formulate an appropriate response. As I paraphrased in Thornton's lunch, business analytics is the most powerful form of business decision-support not decision-making. In my opinion, when you get the mix of education, experience and (reliable) information right, you release executive creativity, not constrain it. What they all agreed upon was that there has to be a greater understanding of the power and limitations of analytics in the boardroom - there are too many executives who are woefully underestimating or overestimating what can be done with these powerful tools. As the panel agreed, models don't kill businesses; fools with models kill businesses. On the other hand, what can't experts with models achieve? Anyway, the panel was incredibly stimulating, all three panelists were insightful, funny, engaging story-tellers who could really get their points across and set us up for the afternoon Executive Workshops (I was in Thornton's). Although I must admit to some bias (Malcolm would pick me up on that anyway). I have to admit that, all things considered, this has been the best PBLS so far. If you were one of the unfortunate people who missed the conference (shame on you), I strongly recommend you visit the main site - the keynote sessions and panels were filmed and will be available as streaming video.It's not the same, but you would do yourself a disservice by not taking advantage of it. Here's looking forward to the next event in the series in mid-2010 in Europe. I hope to see you there.
Thursday, October 29. 2009
Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink, and Tom Davenport, Babson College professor and author of Competing on Analytics, engaged this morning in a debate on a live Webcast onsite at The Premier Business Leadership Series at Caesars Palace, Las Vegas. The theme of the debate is analytics vs. instinct: which works best for strategic decision-making.
I’ll share a few highlights here, captured from our position among the production crew in the control room. (You can view the archive here):
Gladwell’s worry with analytics, though he does value them, is that there is a tendency for people to use them in areas where they don’t belong, and often say that there’s no room for gut instinct. But that doesn’t mean he’s squarely in the “gut instinct” camp. Gladwell says that intuition is most useful in the context of a great deal of expertise, and that expertise is most often grounded in data.
Davenport still countered, however, by stating that analytical decisions have been proven in academic studies as more likely to be correct. Davenport elaborated on the types of decisions or situations that are appropriate for an analytic approach: - When the time demand of the decision at hand is appropriate: you have to have time to gather data, which you can’t do in a rapid-fire situation.
- For particularly important problems. It’s overkill to use analytics to decide what flavor of ice cream you want to buy.
- When you think the past is a good guide to the future. If for some reason you think it isn’t, analytics are not a very good tool.
- If you have to repeat a decision frequently, as in insurance underwriting, you can get accuracy and speed by automating your approach.
Even so, Gladwell challenges that there are applications where analytics simply should not be the exclusive approach. Davenport believes that analytics support better answers to problems. But in the final round, Gladwell offers a one-two punch: Financial. Crisis. Gladwell says that if ever there was an industry in the throes of analytics it was Wall Street last year, where analytics permitted a level of confidence that wasn’t warranted. It was a situation that could have benefitted from someone with some common sense who may have observed that something was very wrong, and they need to depart from what the models were saying.
All in all, a fair fight. But this writer lands in Gladwell’s corner, because how many times has a pediatrician told a mother, when faced with those “mystery” symptoms, to trust herself to know when her child is really sick.
Is it all about the data? What does your gut tell you?
Wednesday, November 12. 2008
At the Premier Business Leadership Series in Las Vegas, I made an effort to talk to everyone I could about social media. It's fun to consider how differently these conversations might have gone four years ago when I started my first personal blog. If I had tried to talk to business leaders about blogging, wikis and social networking at a conference like this in 2004, I would have been met with blank stares. Today, in 2008, most companies are starting to explore social media, and most business leaders are realizing the benefits of listening to and talking with customers online.
So, who did I talk to? And what did we talk about? I talked to SAS customers, SAS employees and many of the keynote presenters.
I'm going to a quick series of posts here that give a glimpse or two of each conversation, but I may try to blow one or two of these out into larger posts later if there's interest.
 In the photo here, I'm talking to Thomas Davenport, co- author of Competing on Analytics. Tom blogs for Harvard at The Next Big Thing, but he tends to be more bearish on social media than the average blogger.
At a time when many bloggers are claiming social media offers great, low-cost marketing opportunities in a down economy, Tom Davenport claims the opposite. So, I asked him if he'd call himself a social media curmudgeon. His response?
"I guess I am somewhat of a curmudgeon about the corporate applications. I have no objections to people being social with each other and I have minor compunctions about them being social with each other online as opposed to face-to-face, but that’s not my real problem. I think people should even experiment with blogging for corporate use, but the hype about how they’re going to transform corporations and make them less hierarchical, I just don’t believe."
I tend to lean more towards the utopian version of social media myself, but I think it's vital to have people like Tom in the conversation balancing the enthusiasm of those of us who sometimes think social media has no bounds.
Tom is less curmudgeonly when talking about knowledge management, and he says he came to a realization earlier this year that social media, or what many call Enterprise 2.0, is a newer form knowledge management, a concept he supports.
"When I heard Andrew McAfee speak about Enterprise 2.0, I realized I could have basically done a global search and replace. Every time he said Enterprise 2.0, I could have put in Knowledge Management," says Tom.
For example? "You have to build trust between people. You have to give people some slack time to do this. You need executive support. It’s exactly the same style. So, then I decided that I had been over curmudgeonly and if we could give some juice to knowledge management, God knows it needed it, so what was I doing complaining about it? So, I haven’t done quite as much criticism."
Tom did note that his more critical posts are always the ones that see more comment activity, though, which can be good for starting conversation. That makes me wonder if I should put on my curmudgeon hat more often here, just to kick up some conversation.
Friday, April 25. 2008
Continuing my coverage of our 2008 Competing on Analytics series, I was in New York last night attending the executive dinner titled ‘ Competing on analytics -Turning Potential into Performance’ that features thought leader and author Thomas H. Davenport, co-author of Competing on Analytics, sharing latest insights from his most recent groundbreaking research and best practices for analytics-based management.
Full disclosure: I have the steps backwards as I attended the second step in the series in Washington DC before I attended the first step, which is the dinner, but I think I am being forgiven given my travel schedule the last few months.
As I did for the Washington DC Apply IT event, I am blogging in near real time and paraphrasing some of what is occurring at the dinner.
Tom Davenport has a huge fan following and I am first in line. Advantage at these events is that I get to spend time with Tom and exchange ideas before everyone arrives because once they do, there is a circle around him that grows larger by the minute.
Fascinating behavior at this event was invitees were introducing themselves to each other with their name, organization they worked for and then identifying which level there were at. The level’s they are referencing here are where they fall on the Road map to becoming an analytical competitor as described in - you guessed it - the book Competing on Analytics. It is humbling to see that most have self-assessed themselves between Stage 2: Localized Analytics and Stage 3: Analytical Aspirations, and everyone enthusiastically shares the journey they have taken to get where they are and then what they need to embark on to make the big leap to the Stage 4: Analytical Companies and (the ultimate) Stage 5: Analytical Competitors.
Between cocktails and dinner Tom shared his latest insights and experiences and, like always, had everyone hanging off his every word. Everyone waited till he was done to ask questions and while I would like to give a synopsis of Tom’s presentation sans PowerPoint, I would not do justice to it. You have to hear him present it to get it right. I will however paraphrase the questions that were asked and my comments/ thoughts are italicized: - Is there a correlation to the 5 Stage Model that road maps going from being analytically impaired to analytical competitor that Tom developed and is in the book and the 5 level model of executive capabilities that was defined by Jim Collins in his book Good to Great? Interesting idea and deserves some research and interesting anecdote from Tom was how 5 seems to be the magic number for this type of work including the SAS Information Evolution Model that is a 5 step maturity model as well.
- Have companies at Stage 5: Analytical Competitors successful in mainstreaming and extending the utility of analytics to the field / sales organization and their servicing organizations to drive the growth curves for the business?
- What happens when Analytical organizations acquire or merge with relationship centric companies? Where does the rationalization happen? Does the acquirer get to mandate its discipline on the acquired entity? What happens in merger? This seems like a research paper in the making.
- What is the level of effort and timeframe to go from Stage 1: Analytically impaired to Stage 5: Analytical Competitor? In true Tom style and with a straight face Tom’s response ‘2 years 56 days 3 hours 4 mins’ instantly reminding me of the elusive silver bullet question from the Washington DC Apply IT event.
- What unstructured and semi-structured data and its role in analytics? This has been my challenge to the marketplace for years, ever since my analyst / consulting days and I am excited to see that I am no longer in the company of only a select few that are thinking this way including SAS that has been investing in solutions for 10+ years to address this exact same challenge including our latest acquisition of Teragram to strengthen industry-leading text mining, analytics. I will also use this train of thought to blatantly promote my 3 part blog post on the same topic.
- When do analytics go too far? Another common thread from the Washington DC Apply IT event.
As in the previous blog post looking for fellow bloggers and onlookers, you are welcome to sound off, address, answer, add, refute or argue the questions and comments.
Thursday, April 10. 2008
“In God we Trust, all others bring data.” – Barry Beracha at Sara Lee
I get to participate in several events, conferences and summits in a year, and yesterday I attended one in Washington DC where after a long time I am not presenting, doing press interviews or briefing analysts - but just attending. Jumping on the opportunity to blog in near real time and share an unadulterated view of what is being shared at what is by design a best practice forum.
The event is the first of the second step in the SAS and Intel 2008 Competing on Analytics series, designed to help decisions makers learn how to effectively use analytics within organizations The first step in the series is a round of executive dinners titled Competing on analytics -Turning Potential into Performance that feature thought leader and author Thomas H. Davenport. The co-author of Competing on Analytics, Tom shares the latest insights from his most recent groundbreaking research and best practices for analytics-based management.
Yesterday's event featured Jeanne Harris, co-author of Competing on Analytics and it was fascinating to hear how every organization in every competitive mix of every industry has access to the same market data and they have identical data collected and generated internally – but only a few fully leverage their information assets to compete on analytics by discovering the power of analytics to out-think and out-execute the competition. Jeanne provides great insight on how to apply the power of analytics in your business - without reinventing your organization to get it done.
The other featured speaker at yesterday's event was Dr. Calvin C. Johnson, Director of the Office of Research and Evaluation, Court and Offender Supervision Agency for the District of Columbia (CSOSA). What really drove it home and made it personal were the astounding stats that Dr. Johnson shared on the level of exposure we have with what has fundamentally become the warehousing of offenders in our prison systems: In Dec 2005, more than 7 million adults in the United States were either on community supervision (59% on probation and 11% on parole) or incarcerated (10% in jail and 20% in prison) – that’s roughly 1 in 32 adults.
What got my attention right away was how Calvin talks about the agency’s strategy as a business strategy; challenges as business challenges; front-line and middle-management; governance; best practices; transactions; customer demographics, profile and segmentation of their customer who are the offender population; and list goes on. With a mission statement of increasing public safety; preventing crime; reducing recidivism; and supporting the fair administration of justice, what I least expected to hear was how they use an actuarial approach to assessing risk to public safety.
Talk about leveraging analytics. Having worked in financial services industry for years now, it was the first time I heard an entity outside of the industry not only talking about actuarial approach to risk but actually applying it successfully and better than many in the financial industry. Calvin also shared the process of how they went about the pragmatic shift in their business – from getting executive sponsorship; selling it to the business by showing them the what is the ‘art of the possible;’ understanding business requirements etc. Showing us all the scars from the journey they undertook made it real for all of us at the forum. Paraphrasing the key questions and comments from the 70+ attendees ranged from: - What are the characteristics of organizations that are poised to compete on analytics?
- Business Intelligence and Business Analytics – what is the difference? Is there one?
- How do you define, find and rationalize Key Metrics across the silos of the business and the associated data - Finance, Business, Marketing, IT etc.
- Lots of shelf-ware from the departmental buying days and while being tasked with rationalizing across all the different BI products. But quickly learning that the biggest challenge is the managing the ubiquitous tool of choice – Excel. How do you move the excel jocks away from creating more and more spread-marts?
- How do know your analytics are giving you the right answer?
- Value of using an external set of eyes (external to business but internal to the organization or someone external to the organization) to validate your analytical models.
- Key to fact-based decision making today is looking beyond the insular attributes of the business and factor in external artifacts e.g. what is the economy doing? While the debate continues on the use of the ‘R’ word what will it mean to our business whichever way it falls?
- And my favorite as it was a straight shot: Is there a silver bullet to bridge the abyss between IT and the Business? Is there at least one for where to start?
To net it out, here are the key takeaways from all the great discussions at the forum: - Critical need to identify a common meaning of terms and then examine their definitions within your specific organization.
- Examine your high-level organizational objectives, i.e. customer retention, cost reduction, and increased market share. Align the critical organization dimensions of infrastructure, human capital, process and technology. Establish your Business Intelligence Competency Center (BICC) to organize and manage this effort.
- Identify and mainstream analytical resources within your organization – analytics is at work all around your organization, but are you maximizing it? Seek it out and harness existing resources.
- Create an analytics business model – identify an executive sponsor. Demonstrate what analytics can do for your organization. Recruit the necessary decision makers who can advocate the power of analytics.
Look for updates to this blog from the forums scheduled for Atlanta, New York, San Francisco and Chicago. And then from the next step in the series, How to compete on analytics: Try IT – Hands-On Workshops designed for practitioners to test drive SAS capabilities for business intelligence, data integration, data mining and forecasting.
Fellow bloggers and onlookers are welcome to sound off, address, answer, add, refute or argue the questions and comments shared above from the forum.
Tuesday, May 8. 2007
If you enjoyed my interview with Thomas Davenport in the latest issue of sascom magazine, you'll likely enjoy these goodies too:
- A streaming audio file of my interview with Tom, part 1. We've broken this down into two pieces, so check back tomorrow for the second half. (Hey, does this qualify as my first podcast?)
- An on-demand Webcast that features Tom and SAS Chief Marketing Officer, Jim Davis. I've been told this is the most successful SAS Webcast to date. Why was it so popular? First, good content. Second, the conversation was natural, unrehearsed and fun. (Registration is required.)
- Tom's new book, Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning, available from SAS Publishing.
- Tom's speaking schedule. Go see him in a city near you.
If you haven't already seen the sascom article, the Webcast or the new book - and you're wondering who Thomas Davenport is, let me tell you. In the last few years, he has researched more than 50 organizations that rely on quantitative, fact-based analysis. He's interviewed their leaders and studied the way they make decisions. His book is the result of that research, and it includes - among other things - practical advice about the technological and the human aspects of competing on analytics.
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Comments
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