Thursday, November 19. 2009Visualization in Marlow with Stephen FewWe had good attendance at the SAS offices in Marlow. Some people even flew in from Ireland. As always, Stephen was fascinating. His insights into the presentation of quantitative information are thought-provoking. I learn something new every time I hear him. For a flavor of Stephen's style and point of view, be sure to check out his two white papers: Predictive Analytics for the Eyes and Mind and Visualizing Change. For a taste of his presentation, check out his Webcast from our Explorers Webcast Series.
Posted by Jeff Perkinson
in Biz Viz, Data Visualization, JMP - General
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Tuesday, November 10. 2009Spreading the Word About JMP in China and Japan
While the chief architect of JMP, John Sall, remains heavily involved in the day-to-day development of our product here in Cary, North Carolina, he also travels the world to show what JMP can do for organizations of all kinds.
Sall flew to China and Japan recently with Steve Adams, JMP's Director of International Sales. In Beijing, Sall spent time with influential professors from Beijing University of Technology, Peking University, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Capital University of Economics and Business. He gave a JMP demo at the China Association for Quality and took part in a pharmaceutical conference hosted at the SAS Beijing offices. In Shanghai, Sall was a keynote speaker at the International Forum of Quantitative Decision-making and Continuous Process Improvement at Shanghai University. In Japan, Sall presented a demo at a users group meeting with about 70 JMP users. Attendees also had a chance to chat individually with Sall and Adams at a reception following the meeting. During his visit, Sall was interviewed by the chief editor of IT Media Enterprise, the largest online news media in Japan, which comprehensively covers IT-related topics. Scroll through the photos below for a look at some of the highlights of the trip. ![]() At the entrance to Shanghai University's main campus, John Sall (left) and Steve Adams (right) stand by a billboard for the International Forum of Quantitative Decision-making and Continuous Process Improvement, where Sall gave a keynote speech. ![]() A balloon-festooned sign outside the conference center celebrates John Sall's visit to Shanghai University. Provost and Executive Vice President of Shanghai University, Zhou Zewei (left), welcomes John Sall (right). ![]() The conference at Shanghai University took place in a circular meeting room where rows were arranged in concentric circles and each seat had a monitor in front of it. ![]() John Sall (front row, center) and Steve Adams (front row, left) and JMP Japan staff celebrate a successful JMP users group meeting in Japan. Tuesday, October 13. 2009Authors Take Statistics, JMP to Engineers and Scientists
I met José Ramírez, PhD, in Chicago at the JMP Discovery conference and Innovators’ Summit. An industrial statistician and longtime JMP and SAS user, he was quite the celebrity at the conference, where he gave a well-attended talk about designing experiments using JMP and SAS.
José told me about his new book, co-authored with his wife Brenda Ramírez, who is also an industrial statistician and expert user of JMP and SAS. The pair wrote the book, Analyzing and Interpreting Continuous Data Using JMP: A Step-by-Step Guide, over two years, on weekends and evenings. They also write a blog called Stat Insights that includes excerpts from their book and discusses “statistics as a catalyst for engineering and scientific discoveries.” Here, José and Brenda share details about the book for readers of the JMP Blog. Arati: Why did you decide to write this book? José & Brenda: A few years ago, the JMP team approached us with the idea to write a book for engineers and scientists. This seemed like a natural progression in our careers, since we have been collaborating with engineers and scientists for many years and we have developed and delivered countless hours of training in statistics and continuous improvement. In addition, we are big fans of JMP software and have been using it for a long time. So writing this book seemed like the perfect opportunity for us to consolidate the significant knowledge we have gained as practicing industrial statisticians, and share it in a way that is far-reaching and useful to this community. An additional inspiration for our book comes from the National Bureau of Standards Handbook 91 Experimental Statistics by Mary Natrella. We wanted to bring the same spirit and utility of the NBS Handbook 91 to the countless engineers, scientists and data analysts whose work requires them to transform data into actionable information. Arati: Who, specifically, will benefit from reading and using your book? And how do you hope they will use the book? Brenda: The book is primarily written for engineers and scientists who need to use statistics and JMP to make sense of data and make sound decisions based on their analyses. This includes, for example, people working in semiconductor, automotive, chemical and aerospace industries. Other professionals in these industries who will find it valuable include quality engineers, reliability engineers, Six Sigma Black Belts and statisticians. In addition to the working professional, those who are studying to become engineers, scientists or even statisticians, as well as those teaching them, should get a copy of our book. It is a great teaching aid. For those who want a reference for how to solve common problems using statistics and JMP, we walk through different case studies using a seven-step problem-solving framework, with heavy emphasis on the problem setup, interpretation, and translation of the results in the context of the problem. For those who want to learn more about the statistical techniques and concepts, we provide a practical overview of the underpinnings and provide appropriate references. Finally, for those who want to learn how to benefit from the power of JMP, we have loaded the book with many step-by-step instructions and tips and tricks. Arati: What kinds of case studies or problems do you discuss in the book? José: In Chapters 3 through 7, we start with a problem description, setting the stage for the uncertainties that need to be solved using the statistical techniques described in the chapter. All of the case studies in the book are based upon common problems that engineers or scientist will come across at some point in their careers, and the chapter headings reflect the specific application. For example, in Chapter 4, “Comparing the Measured Performance of a Material, Process, or Product to a Standard,” we use a semiconductor example involving a new three-zone vertical furnace for thin film deposition of waters to illustrate the usefulness of one-sample significance tests to qualify a new piece of equipment. In Chapter 5, “Comparing the Measured Performance of Two Materials, Processes, or Products,” we compare the performance of two mass spectrometers in an analytical laboratory using the atomic weight of silver to determine if a bias exists and to understand their measurement error. Although it is not officially a case study, we are thrilled to include in Chapter 7 the data from Albert Einstein’s first published paper. In his 1901 paper, a young Einstein used least squares to fit a model to investigate the nature of intermolecular forces. Arati: It’s pretty cool that you had Professor Douglas Montgomery write the foreword to your book. How did you make that happen? José: Ever since we were students, we have been using and following the work of Professor Montgomery, and we believe his books are excellent references for engineers and scientists. We also share a passion for industrial statistics and Doug and I have crossed paths many times over the years at various statistical conferences and events, including, more recently, at JMP conferences. When we put all of these pieces together – statistics, engineering and JMP – Professor Montgomery seemed like the perfect person to entrust with this important part of our book. So we just had to find a way to ask him if he would be willing to write the foreword to our book. Luckily for us, that opportunity arose at the Quality & Productivity Research conference in June 2008 in Madison, WI. At that event, I was able to discuss this possibility with him, and without hesitation he said, “Yes.” Arati: How will you use this book going forward in your professional career? Brenda: This book is a reflection of how we collaborate with engineers and scientists to use statistics as a catalyst for new discoveries and insights. Having the book will make it easier to share our statistical engineering philosophy with others. Arati: Where is your book sold? José: Our book is available online from the SAS Web site or Amazon.com. Both Web sites allow the reader to view the table of contents and a sample chapter from the book.
Posted by Arati Bechtel
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Monday, October 5. 2009JMP Is 20 Years Old
Today is the 20th anniversary of JMP's first release, and I want to thank everyone who has helped to make JMP a success.
JMP Version 1 shipped on October 5, 1989 -- or as we claimed at the time September 35 -- so that we could say we shipped in the third quarter of 1989, our goal. JMP started as a research project in the late '80s. In the earlier part of that decade, we had spent several years rewriting SAS completely (but compatibly) to fit on personal computers. But by 1988, we felt three big forces, which can be characterized by:
As for the Vehicle, SAS was becoming a large enterprise-scale product -- a larger investment than some users, like engineers and scientists, were willing to handle. We were producing analytical trucks, but there was a market for analytical cars, i.e., something with low investment and ease of driving. We needed a more personal-scale tool, one for the desktop project rather than for the enterprise system. As for the Roles, statistics itself was seeing the opportunities in exploratory techniques, and the value of graphics and interactivity. The statistics profession had been molded as a testing discipline, a role like a lawyer whose job is to prove things that we already knew. What was missing was the exploratory role, like a detective, whose job is to discover things we didn't already know. Especially since John Tukey's Exploratory Data Analysis and the improvement of statistical graphics, statistics needed to serve in the detective role as well as the lawyer role. Graphics was the key enabler of seeing patterns, and points that don't fit patterns. As for the Technology, the graphical user interface arrived with the Macintosh, and later, Windows. It is a huge difference to just point and click rather than look up and type. Applications written for batch computing through languages were not suited for graphical interactivity. It was time for some fresh design. In response to these three forces, we formed a small group to put something together. In a year and a half, we released Version 1 of JMP. This was a very small product compared to the JMP of today, but it had all the basics of statistics and graphics, with many innovative features. We thought "jump" was a name to suggest a big step into a new future, a product that jumps in responsiveness to the mouse, and a tool that enables our customers to do the experiments and make the discoveries to take huge strides in their products and processes. In the early years, we learned important lessons. We learned that engineers and scientists were our most important customer segment. These people were smart, motivated and in a hurry -- too impatient to spend time learning languages, and eager to just point and click on their data. We had a product that was nearly as easy as walk-up-and-use with enough delights to hold their loyalty. We learned that engineers need design of experiments (DOE), quality and productivity support (Six Sigma), and reliability modeling. We made sure we got better in these areas -- particularly DOE. We thought that engineers should be able to just ask the computer to custom-make a design that fits their needs rather than attempting to find a pre-built design that works. We learned how to port to Windows. We made JMP work on Windows with release 3.1, using the Altura library. This was a quick effort. Soon we were busy rewriting the whole product in a different implementation language with a portability host-interface layer, which led to a wait of more than three years before Version 4. Version 4 not only switched languages, but also introduced a new nervous system for the product, including the JMP Scripting Language. In the last few years, JMP has matured considerably. The big driving force has been in meeting the needs of those users we talk to, who correspond with us, who sometimes invite us into their sites. We have a very dedicated group of users who keep us directed, and help us serve more and more researchers every year. Recently, I heard the group of passionate JMP users termed the “JMPerati,” analogous to Stephen Baker’s term, the “numerati.” JMP has broadened to become more versatile. JMP now supports business visualization in partnership with SAS Business Intelligence, and this in turn has encouraged us to introduce more visualization platforms, like the drag-and-drop Graph Builder in JMP 8. JMP can now handle larger problems because of work we have done to multithread many of the bottleneck methods and to implement JMP on 64-bit systems. And we now work with various SAS teams on projects in several areas, collaborating and sharing efforts. JMP is 20 years old, but it seems like it is just getting started. We are growing fast. Last year, our business grew faster than ever, and we are set up to grow even faster in the future. Happy birthday, JMP, and thank you, everyone, for your contributions to JMP's success. Friday, October 2. 2009Share Your JMP Stories (or Videos) as JMP Turns 20
The curious vintage junkie in me borrowed the 20-year-old JMP box that John Sall holds up in his 20th anniversary video.
The description of JMP on the back cover was a surprise. Why? That description still applies today, 20 years later:
Feel free to post a comment here. Or post a video response to Sall’s 20th Anniversary video or to our global thank you on the SAS YouTube Channel. You can also tweet your comment using the Twitter tag #JMP20. Thursday, September 24. 2009The Buzz About JMP, Discovery and Innovators' Summit
While at Discovery 2009 and Innovators' Summit in Chicago last week, John Sall, chief architect of JMP, spread the word about JMP, SAS and the value of analytics. He met with journalists and bloggers, and some of the coverage has already been published online. Take a look:
From what I understand, there's more coverage to come. Please let me know if you've written or know of a blog post or other online content about the conferences. And if you didn't get to go to Chicago last week for Discovery and the Innovators' Summit, you can get a sense of why some attendees said it was the best conference they'd ever been to by checking out our own coverage; it includes photos, live blogs, audio, video and Twitter updates.
Posted by Arati Bechtel
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13:53
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Monday, August 24. 2009Why Excel 2010 Misses the Mark in Data Visualization
In his August 10 blog post, Stephen Few, a widely recognized expert on data visualization and founder of Perceptual Edge, shares his insight into the graphic capabilities of soon-to-be-released Excel 2010. Steve had viewed this upcoming version with great anticipation, for he had been disappointed with Excel 2007’s graphic capabilities. Unfortunately for Steve, that disappointment continues with Excel 2010.
In his blog post, Steve writes, “Early glimpses into the charting capabilities of Excel 2010 are now beginning to surface, and it appears that the opportunity to improve the product’s data visualization capabilities has once again been missed.” It is too bad that Excel isn’t providing leadership in the field of data visualization, but I’m not all that surprised. Excel aims to please the masses by trying to do as much as possible for anyone who works with data. That, I believe, is the main reason it’s so popular. There’s so much it can do. And it tries very hard to meet the basic needs of all its users. Unfortunately, that makes Excel a jack-of-all-trades and expert of none. Over the past several years, I’ve seen graphic presentations mature rapidly from static graphs to dashboard widgets to interactive, animated visuals. This new type of visual allows users to sort, filter and animate their data to reveal potential problems that need to be addressed or opportunities that need to be seized. I think one big reason Excel misses the mark is that it views graphs as an end result, rather than a means to an end. Its graphs attempt to merely display results, not find trends and patterns. If it focused more on how analysts would use visuals to explore their data than to communicate their findings, the end result would be much closer to what Stephen recommends. Advanced visualization tools, like JMP, use the graph as a way to explore one's data, find trends and patterns, and predict potential outcomes. JMP not only provides those visualizations but also a wealth of statistical analysis allowing its users to delve deeper into root causes. And I have found it is typically not a question of if but when a user will need those analytics. I feel for Stephen. He has spent his career preaching valuable visualization techniques and highlighting those products that provide the tools to achieve that goal. Excel may be too general a product to meet his expectations. Fortunately, products like JMP will gladly fill the void. I'll be talking more about how to go beyond Excel with JMP and showing some examples in my live Webcast on Sept 1. Join me, if you'd like.
Posted by Charles Pirrello
in Biz Viz, Data Visualization, JMP - General
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14:30
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Wednesday, August 12. 200910 Reasons to Envision Yourself in Chicago
Chicago is a visionary city. And it is the host of Discovery 2009 and the Innovators’ Summit, Sept. 16 – 19, Swissôtel Chicago.
At JMP, we know that vision precedes success. Our software is designed to give you a clear vision of your data and the potential within it. Our conferences, Discovery 2009 and the Innovators’ Summit, are designed to cultivate the vision you have for your work and personal life. I can think of 10 reasons why Chicago is visionary – and why it is the perfect place to inspire you to be visionary, too. Here are those 10 reasons, along with the analytic questions they might provoke: 1. Chicago, the band – The musical group had a vision to mesh the multicultural sounds emanating from the city, creating a rock ‘n roll band with horns. Chicago is known for 20 Top Ten singles, 12 Top Ten albums (five of which were #1) and sales of more than 120 million records. How can you realize your vision in numbers? 2. Wrigley Field – Home of Babe Ruth's "called shot." He pointed to the bleachers in Game 3 of the 1932 World Series and proceeded to hit a homer. How can you set a lofty goal, visualize its completion and hit one out of the ballpark? 3. Sears Tower – now known as Willis Tower, it was the vision of Fazlur Rahman Khan. At 108 stories, the tower was the tallest building in the world at the time it was built. On a clear day, you can easily see four states – Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin. How can you build on your vision and reach new heights? 4. Deep Dish Pizza – Its origins trace back to 1943 and restaurateur Ike Sewell. Surely, his departure from pizza as the world knew it was a risk; now it is an institution. How can you envision business risks and take calculated steps toward long-term success? 5. Navy Pier – The multi-million dollar convention, cultural and recreation center is Chicago’s most visited attraction. Visitors can experience the Transporter FX virtual reality simulator and travel to Ancient Egypt or fly the Battle of Iwo Jima. How can you simulate possible business solutions to enhance decision making? 6. Oprah – This Chicago resident communicates her vision through her roles as media personality of the highest rated talk show in history, literary critic and philanthropist. How can you effectively communicate your vision to decision-makers in your organization? 7. The Chicago River – Originally home to the Illini and Miami American Indians, later to Fort Dearborn and now to suburbs, 45 movable bridges and some of the city’s architectural highlights, the river has continued to flow in an ever-changing world. How can you evolve and adapt to changes that occur in your work and personal environment? 8. Chicago Theatre – Once referred to as the “Wonder Theatre of the World,” an opulent, French Baroque style made it the first lavish movie theater in the country. How can you enact your most magnificent, over-the-top vision – and make it the first of many? 9. Union Station – It took 12 years to build, but it is one of the last grand American train stations standing. How can you help your organization achieve longevity? 10. 2016 Olympics – Chicago has bid for the opportunity to welcome athletes and spectators worldwide to join in the games. How can you maximize your opportunities when you don’t know what the future holds? Please join us. Discovery 2009 and Innovators’ Summit will inspire your vision. Read more about what you can look forward to if you attend.
Posted by Jessica Marquardt
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09:38
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Wednesday, August 5. 2009DecisionStats Q&A with John Sall
Did you miss last week's Q&A with John Sall, chief architect of JMP, in DecisionStats, an analytics blog by Ajay Ohri? It's worth a read.
"In a free-wheeling and exclusive interview, John talks of the long journey within SAS and his experiences in helping make JMP the data visualizaton software of choice," Ajay says in his introduction to the post. Ajay's questions cover such topics as Sall's educational background, his "Eureka!" moments while developing SAS with CEO Jim Goodnight and why Sall created JMP software. He even asks Sall what he does in his free time when he isn't creating "world-class companies or groovy statistical discovery software." (As a former technology writer for a daily newspaper, I give kudos to Ajay for working the word "groovy" into his interview!) Other SAS leaders featured in DecisionStats interviews include Jim Davis, chief marketing officer, and Anne Milley, marketing director, with whom Ajay did a two-part interview. Tuesday, July 14. 2009Identifying the Root Cause of Failures
JMP user Archana Pawse, PhD, is a Six Sigma Black Belt who has worked for Applied Magnetics, Superconductor Technologies and JDS Uniphase as a Product/Process/Reliability Engineer.
What follows is Dr. Pawse's description of how she uses JMP in her line of work, which she wanted to share with others. Feel free to leave a question or comment for her to respond to or contact her directly by e-mail. How I Use JMP for Root Cause Analysis In a manufacturing environment, it is very critical to find the root cause of failures quickly. Delay in identifying the root cause can result in wasted money and resources. JMP is useful for root cause investigation because you can easily explore and graph the data in multiple ways. I have found three JMP features/techniques -- selecting cells, partition plots and variability charts -- to be useful in this investigation. To demonstrate these techniques, I have generated some hypothetical data. In this example, Y1, Y2 and Y3 are performance parameters for a product that is made using three processes P1, P2 and P3. P1-Machine, P1-X1 and P1-X2 are the parameters for process P1. P2-Machine, P2-X1, P2-X2 are the parameters for process P2. P3-Machine, P3-X1 are the parameters for process P3. Parameter Y3 has 15 failures (value <= 0.7). 1. Selecting cells In JMP, once you have graphed all relevant parameters, you can select failed data points on a graph or cells in the table, and they are highlighted on all the graphs in the session. This option is not available in some other software. By highlighting the failures, you can immediately see if there is any correlation between various parameters or if outliers on one graph are also outliers on other graphs. In this example, I have graphed distributions of parameters Y1, Y2 and Y3, and I have selected all the failures for the parameter Y3. These failures are also highlighted on distributions of Y1 and Y2, which show that the failures are also outliers for parameter Y1. This kind of information can give more insight into the cause of failures. 2. Partition plots If your final product performance depends on various process parameters and its interactions, then it is very time-consuming to review all process parameters to find the cause of a product failure. Partition analysis can narrow this list down to a few parameters, so you can investigate these few parameters in detail. In some cases, the partition analysis can even identify the root cause. In this example, the Y3 parameter is the response variable, and all the process parameters are entered in the X factor field. The best split option in partition analysis shows that the product fails (has a low Y3 value) when it is processed in machine B at P2 process and machine 3 at the P1 process. 3. Variability charts Variability charts are useful for visualizing failures. This graph is very effective at displaying interactions between various parameters because you can plot Y versus multiple X parameters. In addition, by using multiple colors, symbols, symbol sizes, you can show at least four parameters on this graph. In this example, it’s easy to see from the graph that all failed product (Y3<=0.7) is made using machine B at step P1 and machine 3 at step P2. In addition, by color-coding the data for the different P3 machines, you can see that these failures are not related to the machine used at step P3. Different symbols are used for the passed and failed units for easier identification. The techniques/features described here are not limited only to root cause investigation. They can also be used for other manufacturing applications like process optimizations as well as in marketing applications to identify a target market or cross-sell opportunities.
Posted by Arati Bechtel
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15:29
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Monday, July 13. 2009JSL Tip: Replace Loops with Functions on Matrices
In my previous JSL tip, we saw how it is faster to access matrix items than to list items. It's faster still if you don't have to access the items at all. That is, get JMP's internal code to do the looping and item access instead of doing it in your JSL code. You can do that when you just need to apply a simple function to each item.
Recall the loop to make a (one-dimensional) matrix of odd numbers:
Here's what it looks like without the loop:
Besides getting rid of the loop, we used a different matrix creation function. m::n is shorthand for Index(m, n), which creates a one-dimensional matrix with elements m to n, inclusive. When we apply scalar operations to a matrix, JMP applies those operations to each cell individually. That way, we transfer the looping from JSL to JMP internals. Almost any numeric function can be applied this way.
As commenter Michael noted previously, the odd numbers example can be simplified even more because the Index function can actually take a third argument, which is an increment. So we can get the first n odd numbers with:
Thursday, June 25. 2009Nuggets of Wisdom from Risk Visualization Expert
I attended Sam Savage’s presentation based on his book The Flaw of Averages (PDF) not once, but twice. Although I have one solitary statistics course under my belt, I found Sam’s ideas quite accessible, and worth hearing a second time. Sam uses what he calls the five “mindles.” Like a handle that is used to physically grasp an object, a mindle helps us mentally grasp information.
A few nuggets of wisdom learned by this statistically obtuse observer: 1. Do not build a model to get the right answer. Build a model to get the right question. 2. Forget the terms you learned in statistics class. Random variable. Central Limit Theorem. Correlation. They won’t be useful in a singles bar and even those with statistical insight don’t understand them. He says that “The world is an uncertain place and we must understand the language to use it.” He translates the language into approachable lingo, also known as the mindles. 3. The five mindles. For a complete understanding of these, I definitely suggest going to hear Sam speak and reading his book. a. Uncertainty vs. risk. Uncertainty is certain to exist. But risk is subjective. b. Uncertain number. An uncertain number is a shape (called the distribution). But, so what? According to Sam, “If the world could start to use the word, it would be a different place. We might not have flown the economy into the side of a mountain.” c. Combinations of uncertainties. Or, diversification. d. Plans based on uncertainties. But, all plans are based on uncertainties so, just plans. e. Interrelated uncertainties. Or co-variance, which is the basis of modern portfolio theory. And look where that got us. 4. The Levels of Stochastic Enlightenment. Want to work dumb? Say you don’t know the answer. Want to work dumber? Use a point estimate (which is an accepted accounting practice). Want to work smart or smarter? Simulate and do something. Using the JMP Profiler for interactive simulation, he shows how you can play with scenarios to identify the best case. The Profiler simulates “100,000 trials before your finger leaves the enter key. It’s a new paradigm for risk assessment,” he explains. Sam puts it this way: Interactivity is important. To learn to ride a bike, you must interact with the handle bars, physically manipulating them to stay on course. JMP provides that interaction (via mindles) to mentally manipulate your projects or issues to stay on course. However, about 50 million people base decisions for course of action on averages. Can all of those people really be wrong? Sam says yes. And JMP can demonstrate why.
Posted by Jessica Marquardt
in Biz Viz, Data Visualization, JMP - General, Statistics
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15:01
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Friday, June 19. 2009Bogeys, Pictures and Numbers
This weekend features one of my all-time favorite sporting events: the golf US Open (plus Father’s Day on Sunday provides a convenient guilt-free excuse to actually watch it). This year, the tournament is held at the Bethpage Black course just outside of New York City. It has a classic sign:
Not sure who “We” represents, but there is an unquestionable tone of authority, with prepositions, definite and indefinite articles all capitalized. And note this course is not just for “Skilled Golfers”, but “Highly Skilled Golfers.” (Hats off to the pros this week who are also battling Mother Nature under very soggy conditions.) Some data sets should come with a similar warning. In genomics, we are now faced with experiments conducted on thousands of individuals with millions of measurements on each across a variety of complex molecular domains: genetic markers, transcript abundance, copy number, microRNA, protein and metabolite intensities, not to mention thousands of standard phenotypes. Analyzing such data sets properly certainly requires skill along with the best possible software. A primary goal of JMP since its inception more than 20 years ago has been to provide a dynamic and optimal combination of both statistics and graphics. Drop one of this pair, and you are going to miss something critical. JMP Genomics, although much younger, is definitely building on the same philosophy. Accomplishing this goal is difficult, but we continue to make progress and relish your feedback on how to do it better. Confession: Every time I pass a mirror and find no one is looking, I practice my golf swing. I’m a sucker for every newfangled idea on how to hit a golf ball better -- trust me, there is an infinite supply of them -- and just have to try it. I’ve been tinkering with my dang swing since graduate school and still don’t have it right. Not seeing him enter, I almost knocked a guy out one time with my mock follow-through in a small men’s room. One technology that’s a godsend is digital video with slow motion. Interactively successive freeze frames taken from good angles show exactly what I’m doing (even though I think I’m doing something else) -- that, of course, and actually striking that dumb little 1.68 inch diameter sphere and adding up my score. Pictures and Numbers. One day they might even get me to “Highly Skilled.”
Posted by Russ Wolfinger
in Genomics, JMP - General, Statistics
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09:39
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Monday, June 8. 2009Benefitting from the Wisdom of Others
For about a year now, I’ve been having trouble with my faithful Craftsman Eager-1 push mower, which I bought at Sears about 15 years ago. The daggum thing starts up fine but then cuts off after about 2 seconds. This has led me to adopt the following algorithm:
1. Press rubber priming balloon 5 times. 2. Pull rip cord to start engine. 3. If the engine does not start, go to Step 1. 4. If the engine starts but then stalls after a few seconds, utter expletives go to Step 1. 5. If the engine stays on, mow the grass. 6. If the engine cuts off again, utter stronger expletives and go back to Step 1. My problem is that the number of iterations through Steps 1-4 has been steadily increasing by about 2 times per month. Now that I’m north of 20 times for just one mow, our longstanding relationship is really on the rocks. I think it’s time for a new mower, but what am I to do with this one? On my way to the store to check out the latest new models (urggh-urggh), I pass a small house with a hand-written sign out front: Good Used Lawn Mowers 555-1234 “What the heck,” I say to myself as I pop the number into my cell. After a few rings, an elderly voice with a friendly Southern drawl answers: “Hello.” “Hi, I’ve been having trouble with my mower and was wondering if you might be interested in it.” “Bring it by on Saturday at 9 in the mornin’, ‘cause I like to sleep in on weekends. When you come, knock on the back door.” “OK, see you then.” On Saturday, I pull around behind the house to find a double-wide carport with what must be the largest assemblage of used hand mowers in the state of North Carolina. Some are obviously very old but are neatly arranged, and all appear to be ready for action. I knock on the door, and a spry old gentlemen with a flannel shirt and workman pants pulled up over his stomach with suspenders greets me with a firm handshake and beckons me to an overstuffed chair in his small living room. We exchange pleasantries, and I learn he is 91 years old and had spent 45 years as a railroad engineer. He has lived in Cary his entire life, and after his wife passed away, he started tinkering with mowers. We go out back to take a look at the Eager-1. He deftly removes the air filter and squirts a bit of starting fluid into the exposed hole. “Give ’r a pull,” he tells me. I obey, and the Tecumseh engine roars to life but then quickly begins to stall in its usual fashion. But just before it completely dies, he gently places his index finger over the hole and, lo-and-behold, the engine coughs and cycles back to full power! It tries to stall again, but with perfect timing he chokes off the hole just enough to maintain that magic mixture of fuel and air. After a few more taps the engine is running steadily and better than ever. “Give ’r a try,” he says, pointing to a patch of grass. I am so ecstatic that I mow his whole backyard. As software users and developers, we’re often tempted to abandon and bash old technologies and go for the latest, greatest new thing. While I’m certainly in favor of using the best means possible for the task at hand, sometimes those best means are those that have stood the test of time and have benefitted from the wisdom of those who have struggled through and solved myriads of problems using them. I put classic SAS software into this category – it provides a richly deep and powerful foundation for the processes in JMP Genomics. Our team continues to learn about clever new ways to use it to more effectively handle genomics data. By the way, using this new-to-me-but-really-old-school technique, I can now start my Eager-1 with a single pull Monday, April 6. 2009Not Really an $11 Trillion Hole
The front page of the Wall Street Journal on March 13 highlighted an "$11 Trillion Hole" and said "Americans See 18% of Wealth Vanish." I looked at the chart, and the 2008 number indeed looked as if it had fallen off a cliff.
But then I looked at the rest of the curve and remembered the two big bubbles that were going on, the Internet Bubble in the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in the 1990s and 2000s. I thought I should just exclude those points from the long-term trend. So I got the data from the Federal Reserve's Web site and tried to reproduce the Wall Street Journal plot, adding a trend line that excluded the bubble points. So how does our current net worth look with respect to the long-term trend? Not bad at all. We are not in a $11 trillion hole but are back on track after some roller-coaster years. ![]() Legend: green = used to estimate the regression line, 1985 to 1996 red = the points in the bubbles blue = the current value that was the subject of the Wall Street Journal article I don't want to deny in any way that we are in an economic crisis. But I do want to remind everyone that portfolio valuation drops are not quite as bad as they seem if you consider that the last few years of huge yields were somewhat artificial, and just returning to normal valuations will look like a crash. Sources:
Posted by John Sall
in Data Visualization, JMP - General, Statistics
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