Tuesday, October 13. 2009
I met José Ramírez, PhD, in Chicago at the JMP Discovery conference and Innovators’ Summit. An industrial statistician and longtime JMP and SAS user, he was quite the celebrity at the conference, where he gave a well-attended talk about designing experiments using JMP and SAS.
José told me about his new book, co-authored with his wife Brenda Ramírez, who is also an industrial statistician and expert user of JMP and SAS. The pair wrote the book, Analyzing and Interpreting Continuous Data Using JMP: A Step-by-Step Guide, over two years, on weekends and evenings. They also write a blog called Stat Insights that includes excerpts from their book and discusses “statistics as a catalyst for engineering and scientific discoveries.”
Here, José and Brenda share details about the book for readers of the JMP Blog.
Arati: Why did you decide to write this book?
José & Brenda: A few years ago, the JMP team approached us with the idea to write a book for engineers and scientists. This seemed like a natural progression in our careers, since we have been collaborating with engineers and scientists for many years and we have developed and delivered countless hours of training in statistics and continuous improvement. In addition, we are big fans of JMP software and have been using it for a long time.
So writing this book seemed like the perfect opportunity for us to consolidate the significant knowledge we have gained as practicing industrial statisticians, and share it in a way that is far-reaching and useful to this community. An additional inspiration for our book comes from the National Bureau of Standards Handbook 91 Experimental Statistics by Mary Natrella. We wanted to bring the same spirit and utility of the NBS Handbook 91 to the countless engineers, scientists and data analysts whose work requires them to transform data into actionable information.
Arati: Who, specifically, will benefit from reading and using your book? And how do you hope they will use the book?
Brenda: The book is primarily written for engineers and scientists who need to use statistics and JMP to make sense of data and make sound decisions based on their analyses. This includes, for example, people working in semiconductor, automotive, chemical and aerospace industries. Other professionals in these industries who will find it valuable include quality engineers, reliability engineers, Six Sigma Black Belts and statisticians.
In addition to the working professional, those who are studying to become engineers, scientists or even statisticians, as well as those teaching them, should get a copy of our book. It is a great teaching aid.
For those who want a reference for how to solve common problems using statistics and JMP, we walk through different case studies using a seven-step problem-solving framework, with heavy emphasis on the problem setup, interpretation, and translation of the results in the context of the problem.
For those who want to learn more about the statistical techniques and concepts, we provide a practical overview of the underpinnings and provide appropriate references. Finally, for those who want to learn how to benefit from the power of JMP, we have loaded the book with many step-by-step instructions and tips and tricks.
Arati: What kinds of case studies or problems do you discuss in the book?
José: In Chapters 3 through 7, we start with a problem description, setting the stage for the uncertainties that need to be solved using the statistical techniques described in the chapter.
All of the case studies in the book are based upon common problems that engineers or scientist will come across at some point in their careers, and the chapter headings reflect the specific application.
For example, in Chapter 4, “Comparing the Measured Performance of a Material, Process, or Product to a Standard,” we use a semiconductor example involving a new three-zone vertical furnace for thin film deposition of waters to illustrate the usefulness of one-sample significance tests to qualify a new piece of equipment.
In Chapter 5, “Comparing the Measured Performance of Two Materials, Processes, or Products,” we compare the performance of two mass spectrometers in an analytical laboratory using the atomic weight of silver to determine if a bias exists and to understand their measurement error.
Although it is not officially a case study, we are thrilled to include in Chapter 7 the data from Albert Einstein’s first published paper. In his 1901 paper, a young Einstein used least squares to fit a model to investigate the nature of intermolecular forces.
Arati: It’s pretty cool that you had Professor Douglas Montgomery write the foreword to your book. How did you make that happen?
José: Ever since we were students, we have been using and following the work of Professor Montgomery, and we believe his books are excellent references for engineers and scientists. We also share a passion for industrial statistics and Doug and I have crossed paths many times over the years at various statistical conferences and events, including, more recently, at JMP conferences.
When we put all of these pieces together – statistics, engineering and JMP – Professor Montgomery seemed like the perfect person to entrust with this important part of our book. So we just had to find a way to ask him if he would be willing to write the foreword to our book. Luckily for us, that opportunity arose at the Quality & Productivity Research conference in June 2008 in Madison, WI. At that event, I was able to discuss this possibility with him, and without hesitation he said, “Yes.”
Arati: How will you use this book going forward in your professional career?
Brenda: This book is a reflection of how we collaborate with engineers and scientists to use statistics as a catalyst for new discoveries and insights. Having the book will make it easier to share our statistical engineering philosophy with others.
Arati: Where is your book sold?
José: Our book is available online from the SAS Web site or Amazon.com. Both Web sites allow the reader to view the table of contents and a sample chapter from the book.
Thursday, September 24. 2009
While at Discovery 2009 and Innovators' Summit in Chicago last week, John Sall, chief architect of JMP, spread the word about JMP, SAS and the value of analytics. He met with journalists and bloggers, and some of the coverage has already been published online. Take a look:
- In a story for Computerworld, reporter Eric Lai asked Sall why JMP chose best-selling author Malcolm Gladwell to headline the Chicago conferences. "Journalists are like detectives. A lot of our customers are like that," said Sall, who is co-founder and Executive Vice President of SAS. "They don't just want to prove things you already know. That's lawyer stuff. They want to look at statistical outliers and figure out new things."
- Greg Burns, Senior Business Correspondent for the Chicago Tribune, talked with both Sall and Gladwell during the conferences. He wrote up his interview with Sall in two parts, posting it Tuesday and Wednesday this week. It is part of what Burns is calling Big Brain Week, with Sall representing left-brain thinking and Gladwell representing right-brain thinking. Burns' interview with Gladwell appears in two parts today and tomorrow.
- Data visualization guru Stephen Few, Principal of Perceptual Edge, wrote about the conferences and Gladwell's keynote speech in his influential blog, Visual Business Intelligence. Few applauded Gladwell's insight that modern problems present the challenges of too much information and too little understanding of that data, pointing to a need for good analytics. "More directly related to my work in BI, I’ve stated countless times that this industry has done a wonderful job of giving us technologies for collecting and storing enormous quantities of data, but has largely failed to provide the data sense-making tools that are needed to put data to use for decision-making," Few writes.
From what I understand, there's more coverage to come. Please let me know if you've written or know of a blog post or other online content about the conferences.
And if you didn't get to go to Chicago last week for Discovery and the Innovators' Summit, you can get a sense of why some attendees said it was the best conference they'd ever been to by checking out our own coverage; it includes photos, live blogs, audio, video and Twitter updates.
Monday, September 21. 2009
It is a rare and exhilarating opportunity to dine with a legend. And at Discovery 2009, that is exactly what attendees did.
After a full day of keynote speakers, breakout sessions, poster browsing and meeting the developers, conference-goers convened for deep-dish pizza and the chance to hear from Dr. George E.P. Box, who many would label “the father of modern-day statistics.”
The audience was filled with people who learned statistics from his many books, including “Statistics for Experimenters.” Each person received a copy and the chance to have it signed by the man for which Box-Cox transformations, Box-Jenkins models and Box-Behnken designs are named.
In the words of one audience member, his “book is one of the best. I look at it every week when helping people set up experiments.”
Dr. Bradley Jones, Director of R&D at JMP, opened the event, calling Box a “personal hero” and “the leading statistician of the previous millennium.”
Box entered to electrifying applause and a standing ovation from his many admirers. Clearly overwhelmed by the moving response, he jokingly likened the moment to a story he remembered of a sultan who, on his 21st birthday, attended a celebration in his honor where there were many concubines and “he didn’t know where to start!”
Infusing his entire presentation with humor and fascinating tales of his memories, Box focused on sequential design of experiments. He attributed much of what he knows about DOE to Ronald A. Fisher. Box explained that Fisher couldn’t find the things he was looking for in his data, “and he was right. Even if he had had the fastest available computer, he’d still be right,” said Box. Therefore, Fisher figured out how to study a number of factors at one time. And so, the beginnings of DOE.
Having worked and studied with many other famous statisticians and analytic thinkers, Box did not hesitate to share his characterizations of them. He told a story about Dr. Bill Hunter and how he required his students to run an experiment. Apparently a variety of subjects was studied, from baking cakes to experimenting with sex to finding a better way to get out of a spin in an airplane (according to Box, the student didn’t actually kill himself, although he came close).
At the conclusion of his presentation, audience members were invited to participate in a Q&A session. Dr. Dick De Veaux, professor of mathematics and statistics at Williams College and a Discovery Keynote Speaker, had a funny exchange with Box. It went like this:
De Veaux: “You invented a lot of things, and we are thankful for all of those. But the box plot, you didn’t invent. And you once confided in me you’d like to invent your own plot. I would like to know how that’s going.”
Box (chuckling): “Well, John Tukey was working in the same group as me at the time that he invented the box plot. And he decided to call it that. Why? I have no idea. He was a remarkable man. But on the other hand, I sometimes got irritated with him. I remember once, I had been asked to give a seminar. And he thought he knew what I would say and continued to interrupt me, but he didn’t know what I was going to say. I decided to take a vote, if it comes out in my favor, John Tukey will keep quiet. And it did come out in my favor.”
De Veaux: “So there!”
Box: “But he really was a remarkable person in most ways.”
His answer to the why DOE has not taken root in more organizations where Six Sigma and quality process control already occur was priceless as well. He said, “I don’t see why people doing Six Sigma shouldn’t do DOE. I’d say, if they aren’t, you should teach them and say it’s Six Sigma.”
Breakout session presenter and experimental design advocate Dr. Chris Nachtsheim asked Box if he had any comments on the state of the statistical profession today. Box explained that in order to teach statistics today, all you need is a math degree. He said that many professors “aren’t statisticians at all; they are actually mathematicians who didn’t quite make it.” Therefore, it is very unlikely that these mathematicians have ever run an experiment.
According to Box, the difficulty of getting DOE to take root lies in the fact that these mathematicians “can’t really get the fact that it’s not about proving a theorem, it’s about being curious about things. There aren’t enough people who will apply [DOE] as a way of finding things out. But maybe with JMP, things will change that way.”
Well said, Dr. Box. Thank you for sharing your time, talents and thoughts with us.
Friday, September 18. 2009
We are live blogging the keynote speeches at Discovery 2009 and the Innovators' Summit. On Sept. 18, best-selling author Malcolm Gladwell is the keynote speaker for both Discovery 2009 and Innovators' Summit. His speech runs from 2:45 p.m. to 4:30 p.m.
Thursday, September 17. 2009
We are live blogging the keynote speeches at both Discovery 2009 and the Innovators' Summit. On the second day of Discovery, here's what we are covering:
- The first keynote, from 8:45 a.m. to 10 a.m., is by Mike Cramer, Director of Operations Research for Worldwide Restaurant Innovation for McDonald's.
- After a 15-minute break, we resume live blogging with coverage of the keynote by data visualization expert Stephen Few, Principal of Perceptual Edge, from 10:15 a.m. to 11:30 a.m.
Wednesday, September 16. 2009
We are live blogging the keynote speeches at both Discovery 2009 and the Innovators' Summit. On the first day of Discovery, the keynote lineup is as follows:
- From 8:45 a.m. to 10:00 a.m., John Sall, chief architect of JMP, talks about "The JMP® 9 Learnflow."
- Following a 15-minute break, Williams College Professor Dick De Veaux speaks on "Data Mining – Fool’s Gold or the Mother Lode?" from 10:15 a.m. to 11:30 a.m.
Monday, September 14. 2009
We hope you'll be at our analytics conferences in Chicago later this week, but if you can't make it, you can follow the action via the JMP Web site.
On Thursday, Sept. 17, at 8:30 a.m. Central Time, our live conference page will start to fill up with Twitter updates, live blogging, photos, video and audio podcasts from Discovery 2009 and Innovators' Summit. (At the moment, you'll see little going on at the live conference page -- but you can take a peek at what we have planned!)
You can use Twitter to send us a question for a particular speaker during the conferences. Just add the hashtag #JMPcon to your tweet, and we'll do our best to ask your question for you.
You can also send questions and comments via our live blog, which will be hosted here at the JMP Blog. We'll be live blogging all of the keynote presentations, including the speech by Malcolm Gladwell on Friday afternoon.
Wednesday, August 12. 2009
Chicago is a visionary city. And it is the host of Discovery 2009 and the Innovators’ Summit, Sept. 16 – 19, Swissôtel Chicago.
At JMP, we know that vision precedes success. Our software is designed to give you a clear vision of your data and the potential within it. Our conferences, Discovery 2009 and the Innovators’ Summit, are designed to cultivate the vision you have for your work and personal life.
I can think of 10 reasons why Chicago is visionary – and why it is the perfect place to inspire you to be visionary, too. Here are those 10 reasons, along with the analytic questions they might provoke:
1. Chicago, the band – The musical group had a vision to mesh the multicultural sounds emanating from the city, creating a rock ‘n roll band with horns. Chicago is known for 20 Top Ten singles, 12 Top Ten albums (five of which were #1) and sales of more than 120 million records.
How can you realize your vision in numbers?
2. Wrigley Field – Home of Babe Ruth's "called shot." He pointed to the bleachers in Game 3 of the 1932 World Series and proceeded to hit a homer.
How can you set a lofty goal, visualize its completion and hit one out of the ballpark?
3. Sears Tower – now known as Willis Tower, it was the vision of Fazlur Rahman Khan. At 108 stories, the tower was the tallest building in the world at the time it was built. On a clear day, you can easily see four states – Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin.
How can you build on your vision and reach new heights?
4. Deep Dish Pizza – Its origins trace back to 1943 and restaurateur Ike Sewell. Surely, his departure from pizza as the world knew it was a risk; now it is an institution.
How can you envision business risks and take calculated steps toward long-term success?
5. Navy Pier – The multi-million dollar convention, cultural and recreation center is Chicago’s most visited attraction. Visitors can experience the Transporter FX virtual reality simulator and travel to Ancient Egypt or fly the Battle of Iwo Jima.
How can you simulate possible business solutions to enhance decision making?
6. Oprah – This Chicago resident communicates her vision through her roles as media personality of the highest rated talk show in history, literary critic and philanthropist.
How can you effectively communicate your vision to decision-makers in your organization?
7. The Chicago River – Originally home to the Illini and Miami American Indians, later to Fort Dearborn and now to suburbs, 45 movable bridges and some of the city’s architectural highlights, the river has continued to flow in an ever-changing world.
How can you evolve and adapt to changes that occur in your work and personal environment?
8. Chicago Theatre – Once referred to as the “Wonder Theatre of the World,” an opulent, French Baroque style made it the first lavish movie theater in the country.
How can you enact your most magnificent, over-the-top vision – and make it the first of many?
9. Union Station – It took 12 years to build, but it is one of the last grand American train stations standing.
How can you help your organization achieve longevity?
10. 2016 Olympics – Chicago has bid for the opportunity to welcome athletes and spectators worldwide to join in the games.
How can you maximize your opportunities when you don’t know what the future holds?
Please join us. Discovery 2009 and Innovators’ Summit will inspire your vision. Read more about what you can look forward to if you attend.
Friday, March 27. 2009
Why would you not attend Discovery 2009? Let’s see: Tiny travel budget. Too few resources. Too much work. Already using JMP … Am I getting close? I bet you can come up with a lot of reasons not to attend.
But none of those reasons can withstand a little scrutiny. Let’s see: We centrally located the event in Chicago, and we are offering deep early-bird and package discounts. Attendees will leave enabled to work faster and more efficiently. Users will learn new and better ways to put the software to work.
Ready to register? We hope so. If not, let us know what your excuse is, and we’ll see if we can help you work around it.
In the meantime, here are 10 reasons to attend Discovery 2009:
1. Learn from experienced JMP users at McDonald’s, Sandia National Labs, Cree, Johns Hopkins and other leading organizations.
2. Meet SAS Executive VP John Sall and other key JMP developers.
3. Visualize your SAS data through JMP, or become more proficient in your use of JMP.
4. Sharpen your JMP skills, adding to your resume and making you more competitive.
5. Watch real analytic solutions pitted against real-world problems.
6. Explore new dimensions in data modeling, see the latest trends in data visualization, experience statistical exploration at its best.
7. Work more efficiently — saving time, money and materials.
8. Learn to design experiments that defy textbook limitations.
9. Make better, data-driven decisions in your high-pressure environment.
10. Be in the right place at the right time. This is your chance to learn from Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers, Blink and The Tipping Point.
Wednesday, March 25. 2009
What an awful feeling to wander into a room and think: “I don’t belong here.” It’s like a flashback to high school. Well, we’re all for avoiding high school-like awkwardness. That’s why we want you to know how Discovery 2009 and Innovators’ Summit are alike and how they’re different. We want you to choose to attend the right event.
In a nutshell, Discovery is an exchange of best practices for JMP users, where proven statistical techniques are taught and the latest trends in data visualization and data modeling are demonstrated. Topics are concrete; presenters are JMP users -- other than Malcolm Gladwell, the featured keynote, who is not yet a JMP power user. To get users ready for all that Discovery has to offer, pre-conference hands-on training classes are going to be held just down the street at the SAS Chicago office.
The Innovators’ Summit is a forum for decision makers to explore what it means to achieve analytic excellence in product and process innovation and improvement, and investigate ways in which the use of analytics can be nurtured and grown within their organizations. Topics are more visionary and won’t be product-specific. Think: TED for analytics.
I hope that helps you make the right decision.
Of course, we’d like to see you at both events, and we even offer a gracious discount to make the package deal easier on your budget. In fact, we put these events together specifically so you wouldn’t have to choose one over the other. With travel budgets being slashed, we knew it would be difficult enough to attend one analytic event, much less two.
See you in Chicago!
Friday, March 20. 2009
What makes a conference special? Topics, timing, speakers. Oh, yes, and location, location, location. Let’s just say we’ve got that covered. But let’s not forget about leadership.
Having the right folks at the helm can make the difference between a good event and a great event. That’s why we expect Discovery 2009 to be an amazing event.
Who’s at the helm, you ask? Let me introduce you to the 2009-2010 Discovery Steering Committee:
1. Mike Cramer, McDonald’s, Chicago, IL
2. Lynn Dickey, Biolex, Pittsboro, NC
3. Ed Hutchins, Cree, Durham, NC
4. Stan Koprowski, Sanofi Aventis, Bridgewater, NJ
5. Don Lifke, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM
6. Di Michelson, Sematech, Austin, TX
7. Jeff Perkinson, SAS, Cary, NC
8. Heath Rushing, SAS, Cary, NC
9. John Sall, SAS, Cary, NC
10. Deanna Starbuck, Aera Energy, Bakersfield, CA
11. Manny Uy, Johns Hopkins, Laurel, MD
12. Cy Wegman, Procter & Gamble, West Chester, OH
That’s a dozen of the smartest, most dedicated and most creative people I know. And they’re working with us to assure that this event meets the needs of users worldwide.
To each of our Committee members: Thank you, thank you, thank you. We are honored to have the privilege of working with each of you.
To all JMP users: Check it out, check it out, check it out. This will be one amazing event. And don’t miss out on being part of the action. Submit a paper or poster.
PS: Yes, I just said one amazing event. But what I meant by one was really two. Discovery 2009 is followed immediately by the Innovators’ Summit. Malcolm Gladwell will be addressing both audiences, and you, too, may want to attend both events.
Thursday, March 19. 2009
You may not be a paper person -- that is, no matter how cool your application of JMP is, you don’t want to get in front of a room full of users and talk about your work. Then consider submitting a poster for Discovery 2009. You can still show off your cool use of JMP, but you won’t have to do it in a spotlight.
This year, poster sessions are open to academic and corporate users of JMP and can depict a class assignment, a research project or a business application.
Sound interesting? Then don’t procrastinate. We don’t need much from you yet, but we do need to hear from you by April 14. Simply send your title and a 250-word abstract to Discovery@jmp.com.
If your poster is selected for presentation, you’ll have until Aug. 3 to complete it.
Need more information? Read more about what we’re looking for.
Still have questions? Contact JMP Customer Connection manager, Kathy Walker, at Kathy.Walker@sas.com or +1 (919) 531-0393.
And when you’re ready to submit your poster abstract, send it to Discovery@jmp.com.
And you know that Malcolm Gladwell is the featured speaker, right?
Monday, March 16. 2009
We need JMP users with interesting applications to present at Discovery 2009. This is the annual event that was formerly known as the JMP Users Conference. In past years, all papers were invited. This year, we’re opening the process to all users with the goal of discovering talent we’re not yet aware of. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that we need to hear from you soon. The call for papers ends April 14. But don’t worry. You don’t have to have a perfect paper right now. We just need your title, a 175-word abstract and a 1,000-word draft by then. And, if you find the 1,000-word thing scary, it might comfort you to know that we don’t plan on running a word count on drafts.
Not yet convinced that you should submit a paper? Read more about what we’re looking for.
Still have questions or concerns? Contact our Customer Connection manager, Kathy Walker, at Kathy.Walker@sas.com or +1 (919) 531-0393.
Ready to submit your abstract and draft? Bring it on! Send it to Discovery@jmp.com.
By the way, you do know that Malcolm Gladwell will be our featured speaker, don’t you?
Monday, March 2. 2009
You know Malcolm Gladwell's books: Outliers, Blink and The Tipping Point. All three hit No. 1 on The New York Times best-sellers list.
Now you can hear Malcolm Gladwell live and in person. JMP has lined him up as the keynote speaker for the Discovery and Innovators' Summit conferences in Chicago in September. Attendees for both conferences will meet the afternoon of Sept. 18 for Gladwell's talk about his latest book, Outliers, a question-and-answer session and a book signing.
So the chance to meet this innovative thinker is even more reason to sign up for Discovery (formerly the JMP User Conference) and Innovators' Summit.
And Gladwell isn't the only big-name author JMP has scheduled for Chicago. Stephen Baker will be the keynote speaker for the second day of the Innovators' Summit. Baker is the author of The Numerati and a senior writer for BusinessWeek magazine.
To learn more about the Discovery conference and Innovators' Summit and find out which one suits you -- and why you might want to attend both -- visit our brand-new Chicago 2009 conference Web site.
Tuesday, June 24. 2008
I didn't get any guesses on the odds of flipping various items from my Flipping Odds post. Instead, the commenters went directly to the question of interest, which is how does the chance for one flip affect the chance for two flips being the same? That turns out to be a straightforward formula. If we call the odds of landing up p, then the odds of landing the same on two flips turn out to be p*p + (1-p)*(1-p). That's a quadratic with a minimum of 0.5, so it's always better to call "same" if you're in the two-flip situation, such as at the start of an Ultimate Frisbee game.
Here's the JMP-made graph of the results that I showed in my Discovery 2008 session.
Notice that though the two-flip odds aren't 50%, they do get closer to 50% than each single-flip case. In the disc case, the odds go from 57% to 51%, so the double flip seems like a reasonable thing to do, even if it's not perfectly even odds.
For completeness, here are the numbers for landing in the "up" position. For the cat and the coin, I show theoretical values. The disc results represent 400 flips, and the others represent 100 flips each.
| Object | Up Chance |
|---|
| Disc | 57% | | Lid | 28% | | Bowl | 32% | | Funnel | 12% |
I'm still not sure what the exact probabilities are, but JMP tells me they're not likely to be 50%. For instance, the probability of getting my disc results from a fair disc are less than 1%.
|
JMP Statistical Discovery Software from SAS
is proud to bring you this blog on all things related to
data visualization, visual Six Sigma, design of experiments
and other statistical topics.
