Monday, November 16. 2009
Did you see the cover article in yesterday's New York Times Sunday Book Review? Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker reviewed the new book by Malcolm Gladwell, who was the keynote speaker for the Innovators' Summit in Chicago.
Pinker writes that Gladwell is "a minor genius who unwittingly demonstrates the hazards of statistical reasoning and who occasionally blunders into spectacular failures."
Also worth a read is the editors' note for the book review section, which points out that Gladwell says getting a graduate degree in statistics may be the best way to start a career in journalism now.
The editors' note also quotes Pinker as saying statistical reasoning is the most important scientific concept that non-scientists lack.
Tuesday, October 13. 2009
I met José Ramírez, PhD, in Chicago at the JMP Discovery conference and Innovators’ Summit. An industrial statistician and longtime JMP and SAS user, he was quite the celebrity at the conference, where he gave a well-attended talk about designing experiments using JMP and SAS.
José told me about his new book, co-authored with his wife Brenda Ramírez, who is also an industrial statistician and expert user of JMP and SAS. The pair wrote the book, Analyzing and Interpreting Continuous Data Using JMP: A Step-by-Step Guide, over two years, on weekends and evenings. They also write a blog called Stat Insights that includes excerpts from their book and discusses “statistics as a catalyst for engineering and scientific discoveries.”
Here, José and Brenda share details about the book for readers of the JMP Blog.
Arati: Why did you decide to write this book?
José & Brenda: A few years ago, the JMP team approached us with the idea to write a book for engineers and scientists. This seemed like a natural progression in our careers, since we have been collaborating with engineers and scientists for many years and we have developed and delivered countless hours of training in statistics and continuous improvement. In addition, we are big fans of JMP software and have been using it for a long time.
So writing this book seemed like the perfect opportunity for us to consolidate the significant knowledge we have gained as practicing industrial statisticians, and share it in a way that is far-reaching and useful to this community. An additional inspiration for our book comes from the National Bureau of Standards Handbook 91 Experimental Statistics by Mary Natrella. We wanted to bring the same spirit and utility of the NBS Handbook 91 to the countless engineers, scientists and data analysts whose work requires them to transform data into actionable information.
Arati: Who, specifically, will benefit from reading and using your book? And how do you hope they will use the book?
Brenda: The book is primarily written for engineers and scientists who need to use statistics and JMP to make sense of data and make sound decisions based on their analyses. This includes, for example, people working in semiconductor, automotive, chemical and aerospace industries. Other professionals in these industries who will find it valuable include quality engineers, reliability engineers, Six Sigma Black Belts and statisticians.
In addition to the working professional, those who are studying to become engineers, scientists or even statisticians, as well as those teaching them, should get a copy of our book. It is a great teaching aid.
For those who want a reference for how to solve common problems using statistics and JMP, we walk through different case studies using a seven-step problem-solving framework, with heavy emphasis on the problem setup, interpretation, and translation of the results in the context of the problem.
For those who want to learn more about the statistical techniques and concepts, we provide a practical overview of the underpinnings and provide appropriate references. Finally, for those who want to learn how to benefit from the power of JMP, we have loaded the book with many step-by-step instructions and tips and tricks.
Arati: What kinds of case studies or problems do you discuss in the book?
José: In Chapters 3 through 7, we start with a problem description, setting the stage for the uncertainties that need to be solved using the statistical techniques described in the chapter.
All of the case studies in the book are based upon common problems that engineers or scientist will come across at some point in their careers, and the chapter headings reflect the specific application.
For example, in Chapter 4, “Comparing the Measured Performance of a Material, Process, or Product to a Standard,” we use a semiconductor example involving a new three-zone vertical furnace for thin film deposition of waters to illustrate the usefulness of one-sample significance tests to qualify a new piece of equipment.
In Chapter 5, “Comparing the Measured Performance of Two Materials, Processes, or Products,” we compare the performance of two mass spectrometers in an analytical laboratory using the atomic weight of silver to determine if a bias exists and to understand their measurement error.
Although it is not officially a case study, we are thrilled to include in Chapter 7 the data from Albert Einstein’s first published paper. In his 1901 paper, a young Einstein used least squares to fit a model to investigate the nature of intermolecular forces.
Arati: It’s pretty cool that you had Professor Douglas Montgomery write the foreword to your book. How did you make that happen?
José: Ever since we were students, we have been using and following the work of Professor Montgomery, and we believe his books are excellent references for engineers and scientists. We also share a passion for industrial statistics and Doug and I have crossed paths many times over the years at various statistical conferences and events, including, more recently, at JMP conferences.
When we put all of these pieces together – statistics, engineering and JMP – Professor Montgomery seemed like the perfect person to entrust with this important part of our book. So we just had to find a way to ask him if he would be willing to write the foreword to our book. Luckily for us, that opportunity arose at the Quality & Productivity Research conference in June 2008 in Madison, WI. At that event, I was able to discuss this possibility with him, and without hesitation he said, “Yes.”
Arati: How will you use this book going forward in your professional career?
Brenda: This book is a reflection of how we collaborate with engineers and scientists to use statistics as a catalyst for new discoveries and insights. Having the book will make it easier to share our statistical engineering philosophy with others.
Arati: Where is your book sold?
José: Our book is available online from the SAS Web site or Amazon.com. Both Web sites allow the reader to view the table of contents and a sample chapter from the book.
Thursday, September 24. 2009
While at Discovery 2009 and Innovators' Summit in Chicago last week, John Sall, chief architect of JMP, spread the word about JMP, SAS and the value of analytics. He met with journalists and bloggers, and some of the coverage has already been published online. Take a look:
- In a story for Computerworld, reporter Eric Lai asked Sall why JMP chose best-selling author Malcolm Gladwell to headline the Chicago conferences. "Journalists are like detectives. A lot of our customers are like that," said Sall, who is co-founder and Executive Vice President of SAS. "They don't just want to prove things you already know. That's lawyer stuff. They want to look at statistical outliers and figure out new things."
- Greg Burns, Senior Business Correspondent for the Chicago Tribune, talked with both Sall and Gladwell during the conferences. He wrote up his interview with Sall in two parts, posting it Tuesday and Wednesday this week. It is part of what Burns is calling Big Brain Week, with Sall representing left-brain thinking and Gladwell representing right-brain thinking. Burns' interview with Gladwell appears in two parts today and tomorrow.
- Data visualization guru Stephen Few, Principal of Perceptual Edge, wrote about the conferences and Gladwell's keynote speech in his influential blog, Visual Business Intelligence. Few applauded Gladwell's insight that modern problems present the challenges of too much information and too little understanding of that data, pointing to a need for good analytics. "More directly related to my work in BI, I’ve stated countless times that this industry has done a wonderful job of giving us technologies for collecting and storing enormous quantities of data, but has largely failed to provide the data sense-making tools that are needed to put data to use for decision-making," Few writes.
From what I understand, there's more coverage to come. Please let me know if you've written or know of a blog post or other online content about the conferences.
And if you didn't get to go to Chicago last week for Discovery and the Innovators' Summit, you can get a sense of why some attendees said it was the best conference they'd ever been to by checking out our own coverage; it includes photos, live blogs, audio, video and Twitter updates.
Monday, September 21. 2009
It is a rare and exhilarating opportunity to dine with a legend. And at Discovery 2009, that is exactly what attendees did.
After a full day of keynote speakers, breakout sessions, poster browsing and meeting the developers, conference-goers convened for deep-dish pizza and the chance to hear from Dr. George E.P. Box, who many would label “the father of modern-day statistics.”
The audience was filled with people who learned statistics from his many books, including “Statistics for Experimenters.” Each person received a copy and the chance to have it signed by the man for which Box-Cox transformations, Box-Jenkins models and Box-Behnken designs are named.
In the words of one audience member, his “book is one of the best. I look at it every week when helping people set up experiments.”
Dr. Bradley Jones, Director of R&D at JMP, opened the event, calling Box a “personal hero” and “the leading statistician of the previous millennium.”
Box entered to electrifying applause and a standing ovation from his many admirers. Clearly overwhelmed by the moving response, he jokingly likened the moment to a story he remembered of a sultan who, on his 21st birthday, attended a celebration in his honor where there were many concubines and “he didn’t know where to start!”
Infusing his entire presentation with humor and fascinating tales of his memories, Box focused on sequential design of experiments. He attributed much of what he knows about DOE to Ronald A. Fisher. Box explained that Fisher couldn’t find the things he was looking for in his data, “and he was right. Even if he had had the fastest available computer, he’d still be right,” said Box. Therefore, Fisher figured out how to study a number of factors at one time. And so, the beginnings of DOE.
Having worked and studied with many other famous statisticians and analytic thinkers, Box did not hesitate to share his characterizations of them. He told a story about Dr. Bill Hunter and how he required his students to run an experiment. Apparently a variety of subjects was studied, from baking cakes to experimenting with sex to finding a better way to get out of a spin in an airplane (according to Box, the student didn’t actually kill himself, although he came close).
At the conclusion of his presentation, audience members were invited to participate in a Q&A session. Dr. Dick De Veaux, professor of mathematics and statistics at Williams College and a Discovery Keynote Speaker, had a funny exchange with Box. It went like this:
De Veaux: “You invented a lot of things, and we are thankful for all of those. But the box plot, you didn’t invent. And you once confided in me you’d like to invent your own plot. I would like to know how that’s going.”
Box (chuckling): “Well, John Tukey was working in the same group as me at the time that he invented the box plot. And he decided to call it that. Why? I have no idea. He was a remarkable man. But on the other hand, I sometimes got irritated with him. I remember once, I had been asked to give a seminar. And he thought he knew what I would say and continued to interrupt me, but he didn’t know what I was going to say. I decided to take a vote, if it comes out in my favor, John Tukey will keep quiet. And it did come out in my favor.”
De Veaux: “So there!”
Box: “But he really was a remarkable person in most ways.”
His answer to the why DOE has not taken root in more organizations where Six Sigma and quality process control already occur was priceless as well. He said, “I don’t see why people doing Six Sigma shouldn’t do DOE. I’d say, if they aren’t, you should teach them and say it’s Six Sigma.”
Breakout session presenter and experimental design advocate Dr. Chris Nachtsheim asked Box if he had any comments on the state of the statistical profession today. Box explained that in order to teach statistics today, all you need is a math degree. He said that many professors “aren’t statisticians at all; they are actually mathematicians who didn’t quite make it.” Therefore, it is very unlikely that these mathematicians have ever run an experiment.
According to Box, the difficulty of getting DOE to take root lies in the fact that these mathematicians “can’t really get the fact that it’s not about proving a theorem, it’s about being curious about things. There aren’t enough people who will apply [DOE] as a way of finding things out. But maybe with JMP, things will change that way.”
Well said, Dr. Box. Thank you for sharing your time, talents and thoughts with us.
Friday, September 18. 2009
We are live blogging the keynote speeches at Discovery 2009 and the Innovators' Summit. On Sept. 18, best-selling author Malcolm Gladwell is the keynote speaker for both Discovery 2009 and Innovators' Summit. His speech runs from 2:45 p.m. to 4:30 p.m.
We are live blogging both the morning and afternoon sessions of Day 2 of Innovators' Summit. Here's who and what we are covering in the afternoon:
- Joel Best, author of Stat-Spotting and Professor at University of Delaware, from 2:30 to 2:45 p.m.
- Best will join John Sall of JMP, Daniel Obermiller of The Dow Chemical Co., Stephen Baker of BusinessWeek and Daniel Arneman of UNC Energy Services for a panel discussion moderated by MIT researcherMichael Schrage from 4 p.m. to 5 p.m.
We are live blogging both the morning and afternoon sessions of Day 2 of Innovators' Summit. Here's who and what we are covering in the morning:
- Stephen Baker, author of The Numerati and writer forBusinessWeek, from 8:30 a.m. to 10 a.m.
- Daniel Arneman, Environmental Specialist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, from 10:15 a.m. to 11:30 a.m.
Monday, September 14. 2009
We hope you'll be at our analytics conferences in Chicago later this week, but if you can't make it, you can follow the action via the JMP Web site.
On Thursday, Sept. 17, at 8:30 a.m. Central Time, our live conference page will start to fill up with Twitter updates, live blogging, photos, video and audio podcasts from Discovery 2009 and Innovators' Summit. (At the moment, you'll see little going on at the live conference page -- but you can take a peek at what we have planned!)
You can use Twitter to send us a question for a particular speaker during the conferences. Just add the hashtag #JMPcon to your tweet, and we'll do our best to ask your question for you.
You can also send questions and comments via our live blog, which will be hosted here at the JMP Blog. We'll be live blogging all of the keynote presentations, including the speech by Malcolm Gladwell on Friday afternoon.
Friday, August 21. 2009
In The Wall Street Journal, Michael Schrage and MIT colleague Erik Brynjolfsson describe how technology now enables all employees -- not just R&D scientists or market researchers - to test new ideas faster and cheaper than ever before.
The key? Faster experimentation for hypothesis testing. The promise? Innovation at warp speed.
Erik suggests two requirements for innovation -- a creative flash and a quantitative mindset that translates the flash into measurable and testable experiments.
Michael suggests that new electronic technologies for capturing and examining results almost immediately from small, targeted experiments lay the groundwork for innovation for companies (like Google) that are bold enough to breed a culture of experimentation.
Want to learn more? Meet and speak with Michael Schrage at the JMP Innovators' Summit in Chicago on Friday and Saturday, September 18 and 19. Michael is there both days -- opening the sessions each day, hosting a group of attendees at Friday’s dinner and moderating the closing panel session on Saturday.
Consider coming a few days early to attend the Discovery 2009 conference and learn about how people use JMP, including for measurable, testable experiments. The creative flash? Well, that’s up to you.
Register now for one or both events.
Wednesday, August 12. 2009
Chicago is a visionary city. And it is the host of Discovery 2009 and the Innovators’ Summit, Sept. 16 – 19, Swissôtel Chicago.
At JMP, we know that vision precedes success. Our software is designed to give you a clear vision of your data and the potential within it. Our conferences, Discovery 2009 and the Innovators’ Summit, are designed to cultivate the vision you have for your work and personal life.
I can think of 10 reasons why Chicago is visionary – and why it is the perfect place to inspire you to be visionary, too. Here are those 10 reasons, along with the analytic questions they might provoke:
1. Chicago, the band – The musical group had a vision to mesh the multicultural sounds emanating from the city, creating a rock ‘n roll band with horns. Chicago is known for 20 Top Ten singles, 12 Top Ten albums (five of which were #1) and sales of more than 120 million records.
How can you realize your vision in numbers?
2. Wrigley Field – Home of Babe Ruth's "called shot." He pointed to the bleachers in Game 3 of the 1932 World Series and proceeded to hit a homer.
How can you set a lofty goal, visualize its completion and hit one out of the ballpark?
3. Sears Tower – now known as Willis Tower, it was the vision of Fazlur Rahman Khan. At 108 stories, the tower was the tallest building in the world at the time it was built. On a clear day, you can easily see four states – Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin.
How can you build on your vision and reach new heights?
4. Deep Dish Pizza – Its origins trace back to 1943 and restaurateur Ike Sewell. Surely, his departure from pizza as the world knew it was a risk; now it is an institution.
How can you envision business risks and take calculated steps toward long-term success?
5. Navy Pier – The multi-million dollar convention, cultural and recreation center is Chicago’s most visited attraction. Visitors can experience the Transporter FX virtual reality simulator and travel to Ancient Egypt or fly the Battle of Iwo Jima.
How can you simulate possible business solutions to enhance decision making?
6. Oprah – This Chicago resident communicates her vision through her roles as media personality of the highest rated talk show in history, literary critic and philanthropist.
How can you effectively communicate your vision to decision-makers in your organization?
7. The Chicago River – Originally home to the Illini and Miami American Indians, later to Fort Dearborn and now to suburbs, 45 movable bridges and some of the city’s architectural highlights, the river has continued to flow in an ever-changing world.
How can you evolve and adapt to changes that occur in your work and personal environment?
8. Chicago Theatre – Once referred to as the “Wonder Theatre of the World,” an opulent, French Baroque style made it the first lavish movie theater in the country.
How can you enact your most magnificent, over-the-top vision – and make it the first of many?
9. Union Station – It took 12 years to build, but it is one of the last grand American train stations standing.
How can you help your organization achieve longevity?
10. 2016 Olympics – Chicago has bid for the opportunity to welcome athletes and spectators worldwide to join in the games.
How can you maximize your opportunities when you don’t know what the future holds?
Please join us. Discovery 2009 and Innovators’ Summit will inspire your vision. Read more about what you can look forward to if you attend.
Friday, June 26. 2009
I had a chance to sit down with Stephen Few during his whirlwind tour of the East Coast as part of the JMP Explorers Seminar Series. Stephen has been extolling the power of data visualization in business analytics and how it enables good decision making.
In the first segment, I ask Stephen to discuss his seminar topic, visual analytics, and the importance of understanding it.
The second question for Few: "Why is the topic of visual analytics so important during the current economic downturn?"
Stephen will be finishing up his East Coast swing of the Explorers Series today in Atlanta. If you'd like to hear more of his ideas, check out his blog or download his latest white paper, Predictive Analytics for the Eyes and Mind. Better yet, make plans to see him during Discovery 2009, September 16-18 in Chicago.
Thursday, April 9. 2009
We’re asking a lot. We’re asking you to take time away from the office, to put on your visionary hat and to participate in the third annual Innovators’ Summit.
We’re asking you to ask the hard questions about the state of analytics in commercial, governmental and academic organizations. We’re asking you to picture a tomorrow where analytic excellence is the rule rather than the exception.
Is that really too much to ask -- or are you up to the challenge? Ask yourself these questions. Do you …
• Want to hear Stephen Baker’s tales of The Numerati and how they’re predicting and transforming human behavior?
• Wish to study the economics of innovation under the guidance of MIT’s Michael Schrage?
• Wear the hat of “analytic champion” within your company, university or government agency, working to expand pockets of statistical expertise?
• Seek to further deepen your understanding of the power of analytics?
• Yearn to see predictive analytics in the hands of people who make the big decisions?
• Enjoy brainstorming and benchmarking with masters of innovation from institutions large and small?
• Need to enhance your organization’s products and processes, taking quality to a whole new level?
• Are ready to dispel the notion that quality and innovation don’t go hand-in-hand?
• Know economic recovery requires better statistical analysis?
• Hear opportunity knocking. This is your chance to learn from Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers, Blink and The Tipping Point?
Say yes! Then register for the Innovators’ Summit.
Wednesday, March 25. 2009
What an awful feeling to wander into a room and think: “I don’t belong here.” It’s like a flashback to high school. Well, we’re all for avoiding high school-like awkwardness. That’s why we want you to know how Discovery 2009 and Innovators’ Summit are alike and how they’re different. We want you to choose to attend the right event.
In a nutshell, Discovery is an exchange of best practices for JMP users, where proven statistical techniques are taught and the latest trends in data visualization and data modeling are demonstrated. Topics are concrete; presenters are JMP users -- other than Malcolm Gladwell, the featured keynote, who is not yet a JMP power user. To get users ready for all that Discovery has to offer, pre-conference hands-on training classes are going to be held just down the street at the SAS Chicago office.
The Innovators’ Summit is a forum for decision makers to explore what it means to achieve analytic excellence in product and process innovation and improvement, and investigate ways in which the use of analytics can be nurtured and grown within their organizations. Topics are more visionary and won’t be product-specific. Think: TED for analytics.
I hope that helps you make the right decision.
Of course, we’d like to see you at both events, and we even offer a gracious discount to make the package deal easier on your budget. In fact, we put these events together specifically so you wouldn’t have to choose one over the other. With travel budgets being slashed, we knew it would be difficult enough to attend one analytic event, much less two.
See you in Chicago!
Monday, March 2. 2009
You know Malcolm Gladwell's books: Outliers, Blink and The Tipping Point. All three hit No. 1 on The New York Times best-sellers list.
Now you can hear Malcolm Gladwell live and in person. JMP has lined him up as the keynote speaker for the Discovery and Innovators' Summit conferences in Chicago in September. Attendees for both conferences will meet the afternoon of Sept. 18 for Gladwell's talk about his latest book, Outliers, a question-and-answer session and a book signing.
So the chance to meet this innovative thinker is even more reason to sign up for Discovery (formerly the JMP User Conference) and Innovators' Summit.
And Gladwell isn't the only big-name author JMP has scheduled for Chicago. Stephen Baker will be the keynote speaker for the second day of the Innovators' Summit. Baker is the author of The Numerati and a senior writer for BusinessWeek magazine.
To learn more about the Discovery conference and Innovators' Summit and find out which one suits you -- and why you might want to attend both -- visit our brand-new Chicago 2009 conference Web site.
Monday, January 19. 2009
 It is not too late to register to watch a live Webcast about predictive analytics by data visualization expert Stephen Few on Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET. Registration is free.
Few will explain how to build predictive models that will display information so that our eyes can perceive relationships and our brains can understand them better. Few will show an example created with the interactive JMP Prediction Profiler.
After the Webcast, JMP will be offering the new companion white paper by Few: "Predictive Analytics for the Eyes and Mind."
A speaker at the 2008 Innovators' Summit in San Francisco, Few has worked for 25 years as an IT innovator, consultant and teacher. As Principal of the consultancy Perceptual Edge, he focuses on data visualization for analyzing and communicating quantitative business information. Few has written two books:
- Show Me the Numbers: Designing Tables and Graphs to Enlighten
- Information Dashboard Design: The Effective Visual Communication of Data
This Web page describes the Webcast further and includes a brief audio interview (see lower right-hand side) with Few about predictive analytics.
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